Welcome to Seattle!

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Main threats

Tuesday: heavy rainfall that could cause flooding concerns. Please pay attention to the weather if you live in flood-prone area.

Summary

The clouds are here to stay awhile as several disturbances, followed by a powerful storm system, move into our neck of the woods. I hope you like Seattle-like weather! I decided to just drink my coffee from the coffee cup I bought from Pike Place Market in Seattle, where Starbucks began. Might as well, right? (ha)

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The first of this train of disturbances is affecting us now. It’s rather weak. Still, showers will spread east across the state as the day goes along. The rain should arrive on the plateau this afternoon and stay with us through the evening. So, today won’t be a washout, by any means, but we’ll certainly see plenty of clouds and some showers/sprinkles.

Another disturbance moves in tonight, bringing a better chance for showers. Those showers should be gone by mid-morning, leaving us with a mostly cloudy afternoon and evening.

Yet another disturbance moves in late Saturday night and Sunday, bringing even more shower activity. That rain should taper off by Sunday evening.

The good news is that none of these disturbances are especially strong and none of them will bring heavy rainfall. The bad news is that they keep us from drying out before heavy rainfall arrives Tuesday, with a much more powerful storm system. Total rainfall accumulation between now and Monday morning should stay in the 0.5-1.0 inch range, on average, across the plateau.

Monday is looking pretty good, though it should be mostly cloudy, as our next big storm system organizes to our west. That storm moves in Monday night, bringing heavy rainfall across the plateau. We could be looking at some serious flooding across the region, with 3-5 inches of rain possible area-wide. If you live in a flood prone area please pay attention to the forecast over the coming days.

Discussion

Our cold front coming in late this evening will drop our temperatures tonight. Wintry precip is expected to stay well to our northwest, back around the Clarksville to Bowling Green, KY areas. Still, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a snow flake or two around here. Temps should stay above freezing, so we shouldn’t have any problems.

Notice that we’ve not had a hard freeze in some time and there’s not one in sight. That’s why our Daffodils are coming up. There are no indications of a hard freeze within the next ten days.

The heavy rain coming Monday night and Tuesday is concerning. I heard some good advice on the radio this morning. They said to clean out the ditches, clean out any storm drains, culverts, etc that you know may be having drainage issues. That could save you some troubles next week. Some models forecast as much as eight inches of rain for next week across the plateau. We are on track to have our wettest February on record.

Records

A big winter storm struck the state of Tennessee on this date in 1969. Snowfall totals were greatest west of Nashville, dropping off as you head east. Clarksville had 10″, Nashville had nearly seven inches, and here in Crossville we had four inches.

Gone are the days, it seems…..  I’m sure we’ll see snow again….someday…

There was heck of a snowstorm in the Deep South on this day in 1895! Both Brownsville, TX and Mobile, AL picked up half a foot of snow. Galveston, TX picked up 15 inches,while neighboring Houston had 22 inches! Some parts of Louisiana had two feet, with New Orleans measuring nine inches of snow.  This is one of those very rare times that accumulating snow fell at the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Almanac

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Record high: 72 (1989)

Record low: -3 (1958)

Today’s sunset: 5:22

Tomorrow’s sunrise: 6:25

Today’s day length: 10 hrs 55 mins 43 secs

Tomorrows’ day length: 10 hrs 57 mins 50 secs

One year ago today

It was  warm day this time last year! Our high reached 71 degrees, after a morning low of only 58 degrees. It was a partly to mostly cloudy day, with just a bit of rain reported in the morning that added up to 0.18 inches. It was a breezy day, with south winds gusting as high as 20 mph at times.

Astronomy

Sky viewing conditions tonight: POOR

Moon phase: waxing gibbous, 77% illumination

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Clouds will prevent any decent stargazing.

News

There was some breaking news in the weather world yesterday. We are now officially in a weak El Nino pattern. So, what does that mean for us? Well, it’s hard to say. El Nino and La Nino, better known together as ENSO, are only a small part of the bigger puzzle in long-range weather forecasting. Still, we can often deduce quite a bit from these weather phenomena.

Typically, in an El Nino spring we see above average rainfall and mild temps. The good news? Severe weather outbreaks in El Nino years are often below-average in occurrence, meaning we may be spared a stormy spring. Of course, it only takes one severe weather outbreak to make for a bad spring, but we can find a little comfort in the climatology data on El Nino springs.

If El Nino holds through the summer and fall, we can typically expect a quieter hurricane season, as well.

I guess you could say El Nino is your friend if you like boring weather. (ha)

You all have a great day!

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