The conference call with the NWS at 11:00 had some good news and bad news. The good news is that the flood potential is looking quite low with this system. The highest rainfall amounts are expected to stay at or under one inch. That’s good news!
The bad news is that the severe weather potential still exists for today, with straight-line winds being the main threat. We can’t rule out an isolated tornado but that straight-line wind threat is the greatest threat (by far).
We’ll be watching for a line of storms to develop west of Nashville this afternoon and push eastward. The main threat time-frame looks to be between 4-8:00 pm. I’ll let you know if that time changes.
The latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) just came out and our tornado threat has increased. The SPC now has Middle TN in the hatch marks to emphasize the tornado risk. The good news is that we do not expect long-track violent tornadoes. The more likely scenario is a line of severe t-storm with strong straight-line winds with embedded, brief tornado spin-ups.
This morning, the NWS Paducah, Kentucky office narrowly missed being hit by a tornado. There have been several tornado warnings in that area this area. Those storms are lifting north and will not threaten the plateau.
Below is the storm near the NWS office in Paducah this morning.
The SPC does not anticipate issuing any watches for us in the near future. I would expect those to come sometime after 1:00 or so.