An unsettled pattern continues

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Main threats

TODAY: There is only a 30% chance of a storm this evening, but if one were to develop it could be intense, with the possibility of damaging wind gusts.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Any storm that develops has the potential to be strong to severe, with damaging winds and hail possible.

Summary

Today’s forecast is a little bit complicated because of storm complexes across the upper Midwest this morning. Those will try to move our way by this evening, but our atmosphere should be too stable to support their strength. I’ll keep an eye on it today and I will let you know if this threat escalates.

Another complication is the position of that stalled out front to our south (see map below). With it being so close by, we can’t rule out at least an isolated shower or storm due to that.

The weatherTAP RadarLab map below shows a very complicated setup across the whole country. Our front that passed through yesterday evening (very noisily!) is now stalled to our south, which is typical of summer fronts. If you look to the upper Midwest you’ll see a huge complex of storms that is riding just north of the front. These complexes love to hitch rides on these stationary fronts. The storms act like a train on train tracks, with the front being the tracks and the big complexes of storms being the train.

Thankfully, we have a lot of warm air aloft (at about 5,000 feet) today known as a cap. If that cap holds strong, these storms wont’ survive to get here. If that cap breaks, they will make it here and have the potential to cause damaging winds. I’ll be watching it.

weatherTAP_RadarLab_Image_20190621_1308

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk (yellow) for most of Middle TN, including a large portion of the plateau. This is mainly for this evening and overnight. Again, the chance is not that great, but if any of those Midwest storms survive to get here they could cause a damaging wind gust.

64826460_2284012861674985_3934000072437530624_n

After today, we have a chance for more showers and storms for Saturday. Most of those may occur in the morning, but we can’t rule out rain at any time during the day. Sunday looks to be much the same way. Any storm that develops could be strong to severe.

On Monday, more showers and storms will greet us and some of those downpours could be quiet heavy.

We may finally get a dry day Wednesday. Fingers crossed.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

Lightning carries either a negative or positive charge. Negatively charged lightning is the most common type of lightning, resulting from the difference in charge between the storms negatively charged liquid cloud bottoms and the positively-charged earth below.

Positively charged lightning is less common and often results in the difference in charge between a cloud’s positively charged icy top and the negatively charged earth below. This lightning is the most powerful, since it has to overcome so much insulating air on the way to the ground.

Notice the earth’s charge was different in the examples above. The earth is normally negatively charged. However, as a storm moves over the ground, the earth below changes charges and becomes positively charged.

positive_lightning

Records

On this day in 2000 a lightning strike set off a fire at the Saxony Apartments in Cookeville, one of the oldest apartment complexes in the city. Flames raced through the two-story wood complex. Ten families were left homeless. When the apartments were built codes didn’t require there be draft stop walls in the attic.

On this day in 2005 a slow-moving hailstorm parked itself over Colorado Springs, Colorado. The hail accumulated to a foot deep, stopping up drains and leading to over four feet of water in the streets. Motorists were trapped. I bet that was some icy cold water! Snow plows were brought in to remove the hail.

Almanac

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Yesterday’s record high: 90 (1990)

Yesterday’s record low: 48 (1985)

Today’s record high: 94 (1988)

Today’s record low: 49 (2003)

Today’s sunset: 8:00

Tomorrow sunrise: 5:24

Today’s day length: 14 hrs 36 mins 12 secs

Tomorrow’s day length: 14 hrs 36 mins 08 secs

One year ago today

We picked up a quarter of an inch of rain. The high only reached 79 degrees, after a morning low of 69.

News

Many of you have probably seen this picture of the storm as it was near Tansi yesterday evening. Many people thought they could see a tornado in that mass of darkness. It’s so very hard to tell from still photos. Video would have helped us see the rotation much better. As far as we know, this is just heavy rainfall associated with the storm, though there was certainly rotation indicated by radar within the storm. In the end, no damage has been reported and it appears we dodged a bullet.

Tansi storm cloud FB

You all have a great day and wish me safe travels as I head out in the morning for the Space Coast! And be sure to tell any space nerd people you know to follow the blog and my Facebook page for all my updates from the trip! We’ll be getting tours of more NASA facilities, as well as interviewing the people who make all this happen. That will all lead us up to the big launch Monday night (10:30), which I plan to Facebook live on my personal Facebook page! Be sure and follow along!

My personal Facebook page can be found at (https://www.facebook.com/thunderchaser). Also be sure and follow weatherTAP (@weathertap) on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. I manage all of those accounts.

You all have a great day!

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