Our complicated forecast is becoming a bit more clear now. The complex of storms, better known as an MCS (mesoscale convective system), is continuing to progress this way. There are still questions as to how strong the storms will be when they get here, so it still bears watching.
I have adjusted the time of arrival by a few hours. I now think we’ll be alright up to at least 9:00 pm. The storms may arrive later than that, but as of now, I’m suggesting that any outdoor plans, etc be wrapped up by 9:00 p.m.
On weatherTAP’s surface map, pictured below, you’ll notice a stationary front draped in our vicinity. These MCSs tend to travel along and north of these boundaries. That does not bode well for us and that is why the Storm Prediction Center increased our storm risk.
What does bode a bit better for us is that our dewpoints, a measure of the moisture in the air, are lower than the dewpoints of where these storms are now. Moisture (humidity) is fuel for these storms. Notice those dewpoints out in West TN (upper 70s). That is phenomenally high moisture! I wouldn’t be surprised to see future outlooks upgrade portions of West TN to a higher storm threat.
Our dewpoints here are in the mid 60s, which is more than enough to sustain storms. One possibility is that the higher dewpoints to our south will move into our area before the storms arrive. If that happens the storms will have more of a chance at being strong to severe. If that doesn’t happen we may be in better shape.
And here is a reminder of the risk categories. We are currently in the slight risk.
Models have struggled with this complex since yesterday. They are doing a little bit better now but they’re still not as clear as we’d like them to be.
I’ll keep watching it and let you know this evolves through the rest of the day!