Watching our strong storms and the development of Barry

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Weather Headlines

–Strong/briefly severe storms are possible today, with damaging wind gusts the main threat

–Less humid weather for Friday!

–Watching for the effects of Barry on the weekend and early work-week forecast

Main threats

TODAY: Strong to briefly severe storms are possible. Damaging, straight-line winds will be the primary threat. Torrential downpours are also possible with any storm.

Summary

Today’s weather focus will be on the cold front moving into our region. The front is already setting off some showers and storms across Middle TN this morning. Those will be with us throughout the day. If skies can stay cloudy all day our chances for strong storms will be lower. If that sun pops out we’ll have a higher chance for some rough storms. Thankfully, the tornado threat is extremely low. The main threat is a damaging wind gust from a storm or two. The Storm Prediction Center has our area in the marginal risk for severe storms. Also, with this soupy airmass in place, any storm that develops will be capable of producing torrential rainfall.

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After the front moves through this evening, we should be in for a pretty nice day Friday. Some models bring back some showers, but I think the bulk of our area will be dry. The best chance for showers will be south of I-40, and that’s only about a 20-30% chance.

The forecast gets complicated for the weekend and into next week, due to the possible influences of Barry. The storm is expected to make landfall in Louisiana on Saturday. Where it goes from there is the subject of much debate. Some models keep it far enough west of us to keep us mostly dry, while other models swing it closer to West TN, which would give us some pretty good coverage of showers and storms. I’ll be watching it!

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

The peak of hurricane season occurs on September 10. Tropical storms and hurricanes are most common in the month prior to and after that date.

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Records

Whew! It was a hot July day in Tennessee on this day in 1901. The city of Nashville hit 102 degrees, while several weather stations out in the countryside recorded 107.

It was a very cold July day in 1888 for the folks in New England. In fact, heavy snow almost reached the base of Mount Washington! The elevation of the base is 2,700 feet. That’s not much different than the plateau’s elevation!

Almanac

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Yesterday’s record high: 93 (1988)

Yesterday’s record low: 46 (1961)

Today’s record high: 93 (1980)

Today’s record low: 49 (1963)

Today’s sunset: 7:58

Tomorrow sunrise: 5:33

Today’s day length: 14 hrs 25 mins 33 secs

Tomorrow’s day length: 14 hrs 24 mins 33 secs

One year ago today

The high was a hot 87 degrees, while the low was a very warm 67. No rain fell.

News

All eyes are on the Gulf today, as we watch for the system that we’ve been tracking for days evolves into Tropical Storm Barry. The system is not yet named, as it is still below tropical storm strength. The winds are currently 30 mph. Winds of 39 mph are necessary for it to be labeled a tropical storm.

Barry is then forecast to strengthen into a category one hurricane, before making landfall on the Louisiana coast sometime Saturday. The worst news is that New Orleans is already flooding from rains well ahead of this system. To make matters worse, the Mississippi River is already at or above flood stage, due to flooding across the Midwest this spring.

There is concern that flood waters will breach the flood walls protecting New Orleans. Some of those walls dip to only 18 feet tall. The Mississippi River is expected to crest at 20 feet. If the flood walls experience spill over, it will be the first time in the city’s history that has happened. With Katrina, the walls collapsed in sections, before experiencing water spilling over the walls.

The flood walls were rebuilt/reinforced in many sections following Katrina, but that has now been 14 years ago. Reports are that little maintenance has been carried out on the walls since. Let’s just hope they hold.

You all have a great day!

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