Dangerous Dorian sets sights on Florida

today

Weather Headlines

–A very dangerous hurricane threatens Florida this Labor Day weekend

–Beautiful weather holds for us through the Labor Day weekend

Main threats

No threats in sight for our region.

Summary

I hope you all like gorgeous weather, because that’s just what we have in store for today, tomorrow, and Saturday….and Sunday…and Monday. I don’t see any rain chances for the next several days. You may notice humidity getting a bit higher as we go through time, but it will be nothing compared to what we’ve had this summer.

You may notice the slim rain chance for Sunday has been removed. You can thank Dorian for that. As she affects the Southeast, it looks like the only effect we will have is a reinforcement of northerly breezes on the backside. That could lead to some very pleasant weather next week.

With that being said, there is a LOT of uncertainty in the hurricane’s forecast, and anyone’s forecast beyond Monday is subject to change throughout the Southeast.

Almanac

almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

7day

Records

On the morning of August 29, 1986 we awoke to a morning low of 44 degrees! This set a new record low for the month of August for Crossville. Nashville broke a morning low too, when they dropped to 49 degrees.

On this day in 1990 the city of Crossville was hit by a devastating hailstorm. Eleven people were injured. Farm Bureau Insurance reported 18 million in damages and that was just what was filed to their agency.

Some of the hailstones with this event were large enough to punch holes in roofs! The Fair was in town and had nearly every light broken. This was a storm that many people will never forget!

Tropics

The big headline today is Hurricane Dorian. Dangerous, unpredictable Dorian. Many of us feared that we would wake up to a very dangerous cat 2 or 3 hurricane this morning. However, some dry air infiltrated into the storm during the night and disrupted its attempt to rapidly intensify.

That rapid intensification could begin at any moment.

The storm’s winds remain at 85 mph, with higher gusts. The storm should gain strength today and eventually reach category 3 status, with winds as high as 125 mph.

The multi-billion dollar question is where will it make landfall? When will it turn north? Will it hit south Florida and then curve north, carving a path of destruction up the entire length of the peninsula? Or, will it move across Florida, enter the Gulf, and then curve north and make a second landfall along the Gulf Coast? These are all BIG question that we hope to have answers to soon. It all depends on the area of high pressure building across the Atlantic. The strength and width of that high pressure cell will determine Dorian’s path.

Below is the current thinking for the path of Dorian. Everything, including the intensity, is subject to change. Landfall is expected on Labor Day.

weatherTAP_RadarLab_Image_20190829_1256

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

The earth’s atmosphere bulges at the Equator and narrows back down toward the poles. All that heat at the Equator leads to a bulging atmosphere there. Therefore, cirrus clouds (the highest, thinnest clouds in the atmosphere) are located at a higher altitude at the Equator than they are at the poles.

Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD

Storm surge

An surge of seawater from a tropical storm or hurricane’s onshore winds. This surge may also be made worse by the low pressure of the storm.

The magnitude of the storm surge depends on the size and intensity of the storm, as well as the movement of the storm (slower storms generate more surge from onshore winds). The shape of the coastline plays a role, too, as well as the underwater topography near the shore. The tides factor in, as well. If the surge comes at low tide it will be much lower than otherwise.

The greatest loss of life and the greatest factor in damage comes from storm surge.

NASA Knowledge

The SpaceX launch of the Starship “hopper” was a success yesterday, acing its final test flight. The craft, resembling RS-D2 from Star Wars movies, is designed for travel into deep space…someday. SpaceX also hopes to send this craft to Mars someday.

When this craft was being constructed in Boca Chica, Texas, locals thought a new water tank was being build outside of town. Little did they know it could be quite the ingenious form for space travel someday.

The craft test lifted several hundred feet off the ground, hovered, and then flew sideways for touchdown on another launch pad. The flight lasted 57 seconds.

This craft is expected to someday be a part of a rocket system that will replace the Falcon Heavy. The Falcon Heavy was the last rocket I saw launched back in June and is the most powerful rocket in today’s fleet.

The technology going into this Starhopper is impressive and it will be interesting to see the engineering feats that come from this project!

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News

The possibility for severe t-storms exists today from Kansas to Illinois. Nothing major is expected but there could be some intense storms.

The main headline will be Dorian for the next week.

A state of emergency has been declared for Florida, freeing up Federal aid as needed.

You all have a great day!

 

today

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