The 10:00 CDT update from the National Hurricane Center has some good news. Dorian has not yet undergone any rapid intensification and remains a cat 1 hurricane, with winds holding at 85 mph. This is expected to change as we go through the day, but for now she’s holding at 85 mph.
The bad news is that the extended forecast now calls for Dorian to strengthen into a cat 4 hurricane before making landfall. This is, in fact, very bad news. The forecast track has also shifted slightly south. This increases the chances of Dorian getting back into the Gulf and making a second landfall along the Gulf Coast, though that remains very questionable.
There is still much uncertainty with this forecast, so stay tuned. The next complete advisory will be issued at 4:00 CDT.
Pictured below is the new forecast track for Dorian, as well as the updated intensity forecast.