Update on a very dangerous Dorian

The 10:00 p.m. update on Dorian from the National Hurricane Center was interesting. Twitter was all awash with claims that Dorian would be upgraded to cat 5. After all, Hurricane Hunters had found some winds over 170 mph. That data was collected by methods that have proven untrustworthy in the past. There was ample evidence, however, of winds of 150 mph, with higher gusts.

Could Dorian already be a cat 5? Of course. It will be interesting to see what she does tonight.

A disturbing development has been a new trend of the models to take Dorian closer to Florida. The state was in the cone of uncertainty all day today, but the official path has been shifting east. That changed this evening. Now,  models are trying to bring the storm back closer to Florida (some even have him making landfall).

Everyone from Florida to the Carolinas needs to watch this dangerous storm very closely. Very, very closely.

It will be interesting to see what tomorrow’s data brings. I’ll have a full update in Sunday morning’s blog, as well as your Sunday Story.

Satellite data shows an incredibly well-structured storm.


Using weatherTAP’s new RadarLab and setting it to only show IR satellite and lightning data, I can see the lightning associated with the hurricane. It has been very interesting to watch that this evening. Normally, hurricanes don’t have much lightning at all. Dorian is different, though. Notice the strikes concentrate in only one region, the right front quadrant. That part, at least, is normal of Dorian and would be right where we would expect to see lightning. Sometimes lightning activity indicates strengthening. Let’s hope that’s not the case here.



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