–Warm and dry days continue. No rain in sight.
–The tropics remain very active
No threats in sight.
We’ll continue to see very peaceful weather across the plateau. If you have any outdoor plans this week the only thing you need to remember is the sunscreen.
Looking ahead, it’s hard to find any appreciable precip over the next 10 days.
Keep in mind that we will not get any precip from Dorian. The only thing he will do for us is bring in drier air from the north, as he spins up the coast.
Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast
We had a hot and bone dry airmass in place on this day in 1954. Dry air heats up and cools off very efficiently. While we had an afternoon high of 93 degrees (ouch!), we started the day off with a morning low of 50 degrees! Start the day with a jacket and end it at the pool. (ha)
Folks in Denver must have been wondering what on earth was going on in Colorado on this day in 1961. The city woke up to 4.2 inches of snow! Yes, snow in September. This is the earliest snow on record for the city.
The tropics remain very active. First of all, we have Hurricane Dorian spinning off the east coast of Florida. The storm is now packing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, with higher gusts. Movement is to the northwest at one miles per hour. The average walking speed of a human is three miles per hour.
The storm is still pounding Grand Bahama Island. The storm is also churning up cooler waters from deep in the ocean. This upwelling is leading to cooler surface water, which is detrimental to the hurricane. A hurricane needs water temps of at least 80 degrees to survive.
The storm will eventually get picked up by some stronger winds aloft and brought northward, then kicked out to the northeast. Hopefully, the US coastline will avoid any landfalls from the storm.
The image below is from weatherTAP’s new RadarLab, showing the storm churning near Grand Bahama Island this morning.
The storm is becoming larger in size and less defined, as you can see from this satellite image.
Meanwhile, we have a new development in the Gulf this morning. Thankfully, this will be heading into Mexico as a tropical storm Wednesday night. This system will likely get a name soon. Current winds are at 35 mph.
We’re not done.
We have three, yes three, more storms developing out in the Atlantic. Let’s hope and pray they just steer out to sea. The orange “X” closest to the US is probably the least concerning, as Dorian’s influence will steer it out to sea. The red “X” closest to Africa will likely swing north and out to sea. The orange-shaded area just off Africa’s coast is one we may need to watch over the coming week to week and a half.
Here is the list of names for this year’s season, in case you’re interested.
Sometimes hurricanes develop close enough to each other that they influence the other’s direction of movement. The circulation of one pulls the other around and vice versa. The image below shows an example of that. They almost do a “song and dance” around each other. Sometimes, they even collide while doing this. That’s when you have some serious troubles on your hands! This is called the Fugiwhara effect (see Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD).
Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD
The tendency of two nearby tropical cyclones to rotate cyclonically about each other as a result of their circulations’ mutual advection (or horizontal pull). This occurs with some frequency in the northwestern Pacific basic, where it presents a significant forecast challenge.
Thankfully, this happens more rarely in the Atlantic basin.
One thing is for certain, no one has a better view of Hurricane Dorian than the folks on the International Space Station. Check out that view!
All eyes are on Dorian today and the impacts she will have on coastal communities across the eastern seaboard.
There is also a risk for severe storms today across Michigan, Indiana and Illinois. All modes of severe weather are possible, with the possibility of a significant tornado or two. This system will be responsible, in part, for helping kick Dorian on out to sea.
You all have a great day!