Summer’s last stand?


Weather Headlines

–Pleasant for the next two days, then turner hot and humid

–The tropics are active and worth keeping an eye on

Main threats

No major threats in sight.


It’s hardly worth mentioning, but all guidance now suggests that we could see a shower tonight. I know, it’s not much, but we could use some rain drops. It’s starting to get very dry out there. I don’t see this amounting to much, but don’t be surprised if you hear a couple of raindrops on the roof tonight.

Our next chance of rain doesn’t look to come until the middle of next week. Even then, it’s just the isolated heat-of-the-day variety of storms. Starting Sunday, a heat wave sets in that should stick with us through the better part of the week. That humidity will be getting high again, too, so be ready for that.

Perhaps this will be summer’s last stand? I guess we’ll wait and see.

Models are showing a “cold” front approaching on Friday that could bring a better chance for showers and storms Friday night and Saturday. I’ll keep an eye on that.

Below is the outlook through September 19th, showing above normal temps (map on left) and normal to below normal precip (map on right).




Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast



I accidentally reported yesterday that 99 degrees was our all-time record high for Crossville for September. Wrong. (ha) Today is actually the anniversary of our all-time record high for Crossville. This happened in 1925, when we hit a whopping 103 degrees!


The tropics remain very active, with a system near Africa that bears watching. The National Hurricane Center has it highlighted in red on the map below. It will likely become the next named storm within the next few days.


Meanwhile, Hurricane Dorian now has winds of 90 mph, as it lashes the coast of North Carolina. The storm is expected to accelerate northward toward Nova Scotia, bringing them heavy rain and high winds. The hurricane, at long last, is expected to dissipate over the northern latitudes in 120 hours.

The map below shows the course of Dorian (blue line), as well as his future track (red line). Gabrielle’s path is to the east.


The sun rose on a strong Hurricane Dorian this morning. The storm has brought coastal flooding and inland tornadoes to North Carolina over the past 48 yours. I’m sure they’re ready to see Dorian go!


WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

The first known observation of checking temperatures throughout the lower levels of the atmosphere was made in 1894 by William Eddy. He used five kites to loft a self-recording thermometer upward.

Today, weather balloons do this much better! The temperature profile of the atmosphere is very useful information. The faster temperatures decrease with height, the more unstable the atmosphere is. That is because warm air at the surface rises. The faster it rises, the bigger and more severe cloud growth can become. The colder the air is aloft, relative to the warmth at the surface, the faster that warm surface air will rise, creating robust t-storms.

Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD

Lapse Rate

The rate at which air temperature falls with increasing latitude. Steeper lapse rates indicate a more unstable atmosphere.

NASA Knowledge

NASA is using one of their newest satellites to look inside Hurricane Dorian. The satellite is the size of a cereal box. Remember me telling you all about cube satellites (cube sats)? This imagery is from one of them.

The satellite allows us to see a hurricane in 3-D throughout the atmosphere. How cool is this technology?



It’s pretty quiet across the country today. If there any strong/severe storms they will likely occur across parts of Idaho and Wyoming.

My class for the 11-13 year olds went very well last evening! We had a fire drill five minutes into class (not related to me!) and one of our experiments went a little off track (it’s science, right?). But, overall, we all had a blast and the kids seemed to really enjoy it.

Tonight, we do it all over again with twice as many kids for the 8-10 year olds. Wish me luck! ha

You all have a great day!



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