Lower humidity will make a difference

today

Weather Headlines

–Lower humidity is on the way, as well as slightly cooler temps

–No appreciable rain in sight

–Indications are that we’re looking to have one of the driest Septembers on record

–Watching the very active tropics

Main threats

Just be safe in the heat this afternoon.

Summary

Look for another hot day, with a slight chance for an evening storm. I wish I could say we’ll all see rain, as we’re in a dry streak that shows no end in sight, but I can’t say that at all. A great many of us will likely stay dry again today.

Then, an airmass that will feature slightly cooler afternoon highs (from what we’ve seen lately) will move in. The best part about this airmass is that it’s drier, meaning humidity values will go down. That will lead to cooler overnight temps, as dry air cools off very efficiently at night.

The downside is that this drier airmass will really dry out our vegetation, even more than it already is. Lake levels will continue to fall, as well, as that dry air is very efficient at evaporating water vapor. If this pattern doesn’t break soon, we’re looking at one of the driest Septembers on record for the Cumberland Plateau.

Almanac

almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

7day

Records

Hurricane Hugo slammed into Puerto Rico on this day in 1989. Wind gusts to 120 mph were recorded. After ravaging Puerto Rico, Hugo would then set his sights on the US. More on that in the coming days….

The great “Miami Hurricane” hit on this day in 1926. The winds reached 138 mph, which drove in a storm surge that drowned 135 people. The eye passed directly over Miami. In all, 372 people lost their lives in the storm.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Imelda made landfall on the east Texas coast yesterday. The storm is producing torrential rainfall. They can handle a lot of rain down there, but even this is causing problems for them and will continue to do so all day today. Look at all that rain…

weatherTAP_RadarLab_Image_20190918_1308

Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto remains a major hurricane this morning, with winds of 115 mph. Major hurricane status begins at 115 mph, so he is barely a major hurricane. Still, this storm has looked impressive on satellite. The island of Bermuda is under hurricane warnings.

The image below is enhanced water vapor imagery from the GOES-16 satellite. The darker colors represent drier air, while the brighter colors represent moisture.

sat_conuse_2km_wvenh_20190918_1306

Then, there’s the rest of the Atlantic….

We now have Tropical Storm Jerry.  This became a named storm just this morning. Winds are at 45 mph but he is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days. It looks like he will curve out to sea, but it’s too early to have 100% confidence in that. Model data for tropical systems can only be trusted with great confidence 2-3 days out.

weatherTAP_RadarLab_Image_20190918_1312

I’m not finished….

We now have two more areas that will have to monitored closely over the next week. At this point, they are just disturbances to monitor, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they develop into storms over the next week to ten days. These disturbances are highlighted in yellow on the map below.

sw

There continue to be many signals that the tropics are about to go into rage mode. If you have any travel plans to tropical areas within the next two weeks, I strongly advise you to pay attention to the forecast.

Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD

Landfall

Where a tropical storm or hurricane’s center moves over land. With hurricanes, this often means the landfall of the eye.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

The strongest winds of a hurricane may not occur at the center of the storm. In fact, many times the strongest winds are located on the eastern side of the eyewall. Therefore, if only the western part of the eyewall moves onshore, the strongest winds may actually remain over water. The reverse is also true, where the strongest winds may move onshore, while the center of the storm stays over water.

NASA Knowledge

Another milestone has been reached! A successful water flow test was performed on launch pad 39B on Monday at the Kennedy Space Center. During the 30-second test, 450,000 gallons of water poured onto the pad. Peak flow rate reached one million gallons per minute.

The purpose of all this water is never to keep anything cool. Rather, it is used for sound suppression. The liftoff is SO loud that the sound waves would damage any craft sitting on the pad. Water muffles that sound and keeps the vessel safe.

When Artemis lifts off for the Moon, you’ll see this water system begin doing it’s job 20 seconds before liftoff. The fire and smoke come 10 seconds later.

What an exciting time! I just can’t wait to see Artemis lift off! We just have to be patient, as we are still a few years away from that mission.

Nominal Wet Flow Test at Pad 39B

News

There are no areas of concern for severe weather today! That is good news!

There is a threat of rip currents all up and down the eastern seaboard today, in response to the effects of Humberto.

The biggest news is all the frost and freeze advisories for New England. This will likely really get their beautiful fall foliage off to a big start!

WARN_REG_NEWENGLAND-WINTER

Tomorrow, I will be out at the Experiment Station participating in 27th annual Ag-in-the-Classroom! Every third grader in the county is bused out to the Experiment Station for this event. This will be my second year helping out with this. Last year was a lot of fun! If you have a third grader who will be participating tell them to look for Meteorologist Mark at the weather tent! I’ll be explaining weather’s impact on agriculture.

1

You all have a great day!

today

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