Sunday Story: A winter forecast

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Well, we had our first frost of the season last night! Our average frost is around October 10th, so we’re right on schedule.  Look for a very pleasant Sunday and Monday, with cool mornings and warm afternoons.

The next system arrives Tuesday afternoon and that will bring some showers. That system will be followed by another cold shot of air that will likely bring even more frost by Thursday morning.

And now for your Sunday Story! I hope you enjoy!

A Winter Forecast

It’s already that time of year again. The time of year when I get asked, almost daily, what kind of winter we are going to have here on the plateau.

I sure wish I knew. 

The fact is, folks, no one knows. Even with all of today’s technology, we still can’t accurately issue a seasonal forecast. El Nino, La Nina, solar cycles; the list goes on and on. It’s just not possible to know what each of these will be doing throughout the entire winter. To make matters even more complicated, we don’t even fully understand how the behavior of each of these affects winter for our part of the country. 

Then, there’s the weather folklore. I have tested the woolly worms, beehive nest height, persimmon seeds, acorn crop, and so on. They’ve all failed me. I do wonder if perhaps these were once good indicators of the winter season’s weather to come, but perhaps the climate has changed and they no longer are? 

I want to believe the Farmer’s Almanac. As the son and grandson of farmers, I want to believe that a name with farmer attached to it is ideal. They boast of 80% accuracy, but that sure isn’t true for the plateau!

We live in one of the most difficult places in the country to forecast weather. The geography of our area can make for a forecast challenge any day of the week! 

I just tell people to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. 

Now, the next time you see a black woolly worm just calm down. He’s just as afraid of you as you are of his winter “forecast.”  

I sympathize with you, woolly worm. I’ve missed a few forecasts myself. 

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