Wind and Rain (blame Olga and a cold front)

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Weather Headlines

–Winds could gust over 35 mph today

–Widespread rain showers continue all day (off and on)

–A nicer Sunday will end out the weekend

–Much colder temps, including a hard freeze, by end of next week

Main threats

Just be mindful of these gusty winds if you’re outside or driving. Also, be careful on our wet roads.

Summary

Cloudy skies, rain showers, and gusty winds will be the weather of our Saturday. The gusty winds are compliments of the remnants of Olga that are moving up the Mississippi River Valley today. Those remnants are combining with a cold front to bring all kinds of rough weather to the Southeast today.

Skies will gradually clear out for our Sunday, leaving us with a drier, more pleasant day. Winds will die down, too.

Monday and Tuesday both look great, before our next system arrives in time for Halloween. The latest data now indicates that showers will develop on Wednesday (likely doing so more after noon) and then hanging around through Halloween. That cold front is potent and will usher in the coldest air yet of the season. Highs on Friday may have to be adjusted downward! We may not get out of the 40s for highs. I’ll keep an eye on that.

As with any cold front this time of year, I’ll have to watch for the chance for severe weather. I noticed that the Storm Prediction Center specifically mentioned the Tennessee Valley in their discussion about severe weather potential for this front next week, but they stopped short of highlighting any areas for severe weather. I’ll keep an eye on it.

Almanac

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Records

On this day in 1859 four inches of snow blanketed New York City. This was their earliest substantial snowfall ever recorded.

Bismark, North Dakota plunged to ten degrees below zero on this day in 1919. This set an October record for that state and is the earliest Bismark has ever plunged below zero.

Tropics

We still have Tropical Storm Pablo way out in the Atlantic. He will remain well out at sea.

pablo

Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD

Lake Effect Snow

Snow generated by cold dry air passing over warmer water, especially in the Great Lakes region.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

Wind direction is a key component in determining which areas will receive lake effect snow. Heavy snow may be falling in one location, while the sun may be shining just a mile or two away in either direction. The physical geography of the land and water is also important. National Weather Service meteorologists consider these factors as well as others when forecasting lake effect snow. Snowfall rates can exceed 3 inches or snow per hour in Lake-Effect snow events.

Pictured below is a satellite view showing Lake-Effect snow clouds developing as cold air moves over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes. Notice how it develops in bands. I’ll likely have more on Lake-Effect snow as we go through the fall and winter.

LakeEffectSnow

NASA Knowledge

News

Parts of northwestern Oklahoma were in the 70s a couple of days ago. Yesterday, they broke a state record for 24-hour snowfall.

EHvXnjUVAAAPX_2

Meanwhile, a marginal risk for severe storms exists today across Alabama and Mississippi.

A major winter storm is howling across Wyoming. Several inches of snow and gusty winds are in store for them today. The snow drops into Colorado tonight.

The fire danger remains very high in northern California today. High winds and low humidity will create very dangerous fire conditions there today.

You all have a great day!

Forecast_Template (99)

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