Winter is coming early

today

Weather Headlines

–One more warm day

–A rainy Thursday will be followed by colder air

–A nice, chilly weekend ahead

–A powerful storm system will bring rain and snow to the area for the start of the week

–Coldest temps of the season coming next week

Main threats

Next week’s temperatures will be 15-25 degrees below normal. That means highs will hold in the 30s and lows will drop into the upper teens and 20s. Prepare for the cold, as it has been many months since we’ve seen temps like this. Remember your outdoor pets, as well. It might be a good idea to put up those outside garden hoses, etc too.

Summary

We have one more day in the 60s and then we will be done with these temps for some time to come. A cold front will move through tomorrow, bringing with it rain and a changing pattern.

As colder air sweeps in Thursday night, we could squeeze out a flurry or two. However, much of the moisture will be quickly moving east as the colder air moves in. Skies should be clear by Friday morning.

Friday, Saturday and Sunday are looking like nice days, though you will need to be ready for that colder air.

Then, an even stronger system moves in on Monday. This will likely bring a variety of precip to the area, though all of it should be on the light side. On the warmer side of the system, we’ll see some rain showers and breezy conditions. Then, the powerful cold front sweeps through and changes our rain showers to snow showers/flurries.

Tuesday is looking cloudy and cold, with some snow flurries. Winter is coming early to the plateau, folks!

This very cold pattern looks to hang out with us through next week.

Almanac

almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

7day

Records

A year ago today, a line of severe thunderstorms caused a tornado outbreak in Middle Tennessee. The outbreak began in the overnight hours of the fifth, but spread into the morning of the sixth. At least 10 tornadoes touched down. Two EF-2 tornadoes occurred, killing one.

I remember covering this for you all that night and into the next morning. That was a very long night! It was also nerve-wrecking. Thankfully, much of the plateau was spared any tornado damage. This line of storms is referred to as a squall line, or technically as a Quasi-linear Convective System (QLCS). See the WeatherTAP WeatherWORD section for more info.

11062018

1105062018map

Tropics

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Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD

Quasi-linear Convective System (QLCS)

A line of thunderstorms that is oriented linearly, often referred to as a squall line.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

A QLCS can contain every severe weather hazard, including tornadoes. However, identifying a tornado in a QLCS was revolutionized by Doppler Radar, which can “see” the winds within a QLCS. These lines of storms are often a conglomeration of thunderstorms of various intensities. That intensity can change rapidly over short distances and short time duration. Tornadoes can, and sometimes do, spin up within these lines with little or no warning. Thankfully, Doppler has greatly reduced the threat of a QLCS tornado striking with no warning.

Issuing tornado warnings for isolated supercells is much easier than trying to find the “hook echoes” within a QLCS. I put together two images below for comparison. The image on the left is a classic supercell, with a tornado likely occurring within that easy-to-see hook on the bottom of the storm. Now, try finding the circulations in the image on the right. What a mess!

Picture2

It is much easier to detect circulations using Doppler radar. In the image below, the radar image on the left of the split screen is Doppler’s analysis of winds, showing two areas of significant rotation. Green colors are winds blowing one direction, while red is winds blowing in the opposite direction. The image on the right is your typical radar view with no wind data. Doppler’s primary purpose is to detect winds.

QLCSradar1

NASA Knowledge

NASA has a satellite called TESS, Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite, that has been taking images of the southern sky over the past year. A construction of 208 of those images has led to the creation of a sky panorama that is incredible.

TESS has discovered 29 exoplanets and more than 1,000 candidate planets, which is just what it was designed to do.

Checkout this panorama!

tess_south_hires_azeq_no_labels_2k

For an even cooler experience, check out this video made of it!

News

A changing weather pattern is leading to heavy rain concerns for parts of the southern plains. This same system could offer some wintry weather for parts of the northern plains. Meanwhile, air quality remains poor in the Pacific Northwest, as air stagnates in valley areas under high pressure.

threats

You all have a great day!

 

7day

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