The cold front has made its way across the plateau. Now, we wait for temps to slowly drop.
Below is the current radar. Notice precip is mixing with snow just west of Nashville at 5:30 a.m.
After looking at the newest guidance this morning, as well as listening to the special 4:00 am weather briefing from the NWS Nashville, it looks like we stand a very good chance of picking up some light snow accumulations. The only thing that I wonder about is how quickly our temps drop to freezing, allowing snow to accumulate on the ground.
It’s not doubt that a few inches of snow will likely fall, but our ground temps may hover just above freezing, allowing many of the flakes to melt on contact with surfaces.
It now looks like a second surge of moisture will move onto the plateau late this evening. That will provide our best chance of accumulation, as temps will certainly be below freezing by that point.
A winter weather advisory will be issued at some point today. That advisory will likely forecast up to one inch of snow for the plateau, with roads developing slick spots as early as mid-afternoon. I think the greatest chance for slick roads will be after dark, but use caution as soon as you see snowflakes falling. Colder spots may develop slick roads long before any other place does.
If I’d change anything at this point I’d change the timing of the rain to snow transition. I think that will occur any time after 9:00 a.m. I still feel confident forecasting around one inch of snow, though many of us may find ourselves with less than that. It just depends on how quickly our warm ground can cool off and how quickly the snow falls.
I’ll be watching it all day for ya!
Timing: Rain to snow transition to take place from 9:00 a.m. to noon across much of the plateau. Snow is likely for all by the afternoon hours.
Travel: Roads could begin getting slick spots during the afternoon, but mainly after dark
Amounts: Up to one inch of snow by midnight Tuesday
I’ll have the usual full blog update out later this morning.
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