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The Storm Prediction Center has updated their convective outlooks and they have now extended the slight risk northward into southern Middle TN. That risk is now much closer to the plateau. I think we still need to be on guard this evening from about 5:00-midnight. The plateau is in the marginal risk for severe wx, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see that slight risk slide eastward.
Pictured below are current tornado watches (yellow) and warnings (red). A new tornado watch is coming soon for northern Mississippi (red-circled area).
It has been a rough day so far for Louisiana. There was even a rare tornado emergency issued for Alexandria, LA. That means a large, destructive tornado was confirmed and moving into town. Thankfully, we don’t have to worry about anything that bad. The tornado threat has become more severe than forecast for those folks.
Our main concern will be damaging straight-line winds. But, our tornado threat is not zero. It’s low but it’s not zero.
The current radar shows most of the heaviest activity is riding northwest and staying well west of us for now. Those of us in eastern Middle TN are in the warm sector, with an environment becoming more unstable as we go through the afternoon and evening.
I would expect tornado watches to be extended into TN later this evening. I wouldn’t be surprised to see White, Bledsoe and Van Buren counties included in that. It may extend into Putnam and Cumberland Counties. We’ll just have to see how unstable we get AND how long we hold on to that instability after sunset. The loss of the sun’s heating may save us yet again.
Updated Timing: 6:00 p.m. to Midnight
What: Strong to severe t-storms and heavy rainfall. Straight-line winds the main threat.
Where: the Cumberland Plateau, especially along and south of I-40
I’ll be tracking it and posting updates as needed!