–Spring-like weather continues through the weekend
–Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall are likely in our area Saturday
–More rain and storms likely on Monday
Strong to severe thunderstorms, along with heavy rainfall, will threaten the plateau Friday night through Saturday. At least 2-3 inches of rain may fall. Wind shear and instability are looking quite favorable for strong to severe storms. Stay tuned.
The rain moved out early this morning. That was a cold rain! If it had been snow, we would have 2-3 inches of snow across the plateau this morning. Oh well (ha).
The morning is quite spring-like. Birds chirping, a beautiful sunrise, flowers trying to come up. This spring-like weather may not bode well for us by the weekend.
Models are painting a very dangerous weather scenario for folks across the Deep South for this weekend. Everyone from Texas to Alabama appears to be headed toward a significant severe weather outbreak,with all modes of severe weather possible. The question is how much of that makes it up to our neck of the woods? At this time, it looks concerning enough to start advising folks to pay attention to the weather this weekend.
Many folks are not expecting severe weather this time of year, even when things turn mild. Hopefully, everyone will stay tuned to this forecast as we get closer to Saturday. And hopefully the pattern looks less threatening with additional model data and guidance that comes in today.
The storm prediction center is already highlighting areas of threats for this system. While it is unusual for them to highlight areas this far out, it is even more unusual to see this near the middle of January. I can’t remember the last time I saw two 30% areas in a row this many days out, let alone in January. This threat area will change as we get closer to Saturday and we will inevitably (as it looks right now) be included in at least a slight risk for severe storms by the time the event arrives. I’ll be watching it all very closely, as you know I will.
If you have travel plans that take you south of here on Friday or Saturday, please pay attention to the weather. If you know someone who lives in the threat areas, just remind them to pay attention to the weather Friday and Saturday.
Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast
On this day in 1988 the plateau was blanketed with half a foot of snow. I still remember those days, don’t you?
Interestingly, this same winter storm dropped over two feet of snow on parts of South Carolina! In Alabama, the storm killed two million chickens, though there is no comment as to how that came about.
Tuesday Clues Day
The size of the hail falling from a storm can be a good clue as to how strong the updraft is in the storm. The stronger the updraft, the stronger the storm. Below is a chart that shows this well! The 1/4″ diameter hail (pea sized) corresponds to an updraft within the storm that is traveling at about 24 mph.
Guess where I’ll be one week from today!?! That’s right, Wallops Island, Virginia. Be sure and tell all your weather and NASA weenie friends to follow along. We’ll be learning ALL about winter storms and the new program to chase those storms using planes. I can’t wait, and I sure can’t wait to share it all with you!
Wx Hazards Across the Nation
Rains have brought some temporary relief to the fires in Australia. Unfortunately, the key word here is “temporary.” Let’s keep those folks close to our hearts. Their plight is far from over.
You all have a great day!