It is winter, right?

today

Weather Headlines

–Springlike weather continues for the next week

–Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall possible on Saturday

–More rainfall early next week

Main threats

There is the risk for strong to severe t-storms on Saturday. In addition, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding. I’m monitoring both very closely.

Summary

We’ll see yet another spring-like day across the plateau. As is often the case in January, spring-like weather could lead to spring-like storms on Saturday.

Before then, we can expect mostly sunny skies today. As the atmosphere begins to slowly destabilize, we’ll see more clouds move in for Thursday and Friday. Winds will also picking up each day, all preceding our next big storm system.

That storm begins arriving Friday night. I think the rain will hold off until after dark Friday. That will be the lighter side of the system. By Saturday morning, we’ll likely be tracking a mean squall line of storms in West Tennessee. As that tracks eastward, the risk for strong to severe storms will increase for our area. It is too soon to nail down specific timing just yet, so stay tuned for updates on that.

The dynamics with this system are impressive, especially for January. There is one possibility that must be considered, though. A very significant outbreak of severe weather is likely across Louisiana and Mississippi. That could translate into a big mess of storms just south of our region. That could rob our atmosphere of a lot of the energy needed for severe weather. I’ve seen that happen many times. That wouldn’t get us completely out of the woods, but it sure would help.

We know the atmosphere will be prime for severe weather on Saturday, but we don’t know the details of what will be going on down here at the surface (ie. just how warm will we get, will it be mostly cloudy or partly sunny, etc). It’s just too early to know those specific details just yet. Just stay tuned and I’ll keep you posted.

That clears out for our Sunday. Then, that whole cold front stalls to our south and then lifts back northward as a warm front. This will bring more rain to the area by Monday night and Tuesday. It is too early to tell if that rainfall will be on the light or heavy side.

Almanac

almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

7day

Records

One of the worst ice storms in our nation’s history took place on this day in 1953. Up to four inches of ice accumulated in Pennsylvania. Southeastern New York state had three inches of ice.

Wednesday’s Weather Word of the Day

Mesocyclone

An area of rotation, typically 2-6 miles in diameter, often found at the rear of a supercell thunderstorm. The circulation of the mesocylone covers a region much larger than the actual tornado that may come from the meso.

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NASA Knowledge

I got my itinerary for next Tuesday! All times are eastern. This mission is called IMPACTS. “IMPACTS is investigating how snow is distributed throughout storms and what processes in the atmosphere lead to the development of narrow strips of heavy snow called snow bands. Better understanding of the mechanisms of snow band formation and the factors that influence the location of the most intense snowfall will help improve forecasts of these extreme weather events and their observation by satellites in space. This study is the first to take detailed measurements of East Coast snowstorms in 30 years and involves cutting edge instrumentation on NASA’s ER-2 and P-3B research aircraft over the northeastern United States.”

Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2019

8:15: Guests arrive at Wallops Visitor Center

8:15-8:35: Guest check in

8:35-8:45: Opening remarks in Visitor Center auditorium

                Speakers: Ellen Gray and Chelsey Ballarte

8:45-9:00: IMPACTS in NASA Earth Science

            Speaker: Gail Skofronick Jackson

9:00-9:15: IMPACTS Overview

            Speaker: Lynn McMurdie

9:15-9:30: Load onto the busses, security sweep

9:30-9:45: Travel to Wallops Flight Facility main base

9:45-10:00: Comfort break and Q&A session

10:00-10:50: Weather briefing

            Speakers: Lynn McMurdie and Gail Skofronick Jackson

10:50-11:00: Transit to N-159 Aircraft Hangar

  •  Groups rotate between the following stations –

11:00-11:20: Operations center tour

11:20-11:40: P-3 aircraft tour

            Speaker: Gerry Heymsfield

11:40-12:00: C-130, B-200 King Air, and more

  • Rotation concludes –

12:00-12:10: Transit to N-161

12:10-12:40: Weather balloon launch

Speaker: Lynn McMurdie

12:40-12:50: Travel to Wallops cafeteria

12:50-2:00: Lunch and shopping break

2:00-2:10: Travel to Range Control Center

2:10-2:30: Range Control Center tour

            Speaker: TBD

2:30-2:40: Travel to Sounding Rockets Factory

2:40-3:40: Sounding Rockets Tour

            Speaker: Eric Roper

3:40-4:00: Travel to Wallops Visitor Center

4:00: NASA Social concludes

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

hazards

News

Registration for the next MASTER Science class is OPEN! Remember, the class is free and capped at 30 students (if fills fast). That class will be January 23 at Roane State at 4:30. Class last about an hour. We will focus on my trip to Wallops and what I learn about IMPACTS. This will be an excellent class for the kid who is both passionate about weather and NASA!

The link to the form can be found here. Hurry! Classes fill up fast!

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScoMW8RJEGwH46V4Lf3p-U0Hv02h667iY2TdnVxtboH5_HL7Q/viewform

In Memoriam

The world has lost a gem of a person this week. Mr. Glen Connor was one of the best professors I ever knew at Western Kentucky. He worked as the Kentucky State Climatologist for many years and made so many wonderful contributions to the university. I am confident, however, that he will be most remembered by us as a kind, compassionate man who loved with a huge heart and never failed to make you feel more than welcome to visit.

Rest easy, Mr. Connor, and we’ll see ya when we get there.

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You all have a great day!

7day

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