–Strong, gusty winds are expected over the next few days
–Strong to severe storms possible Saturday
–The next rain-maker arrives early next week
Strong winds are expected over the next several days, as our next system ramps up to our west. These winds may break tree limbs and uproot shallow-rooted trees. Sporadic power outages are possible. These are non-thunderstorm winds that will be picking up over the next three days.
We’ll be under the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday. Heavy rainfall could also occur. Below is a graphic developed by the NWS Nashville office. We are currently in the MARGINAL RISK for severe weather, which is the lowest of the risk categories, but that could change over the next 48 hours and we may be upgraded to the slight or enhanced risk, depending on what guidance today suggests. Stay tuned.
You can tell from the sky that the weather is about to be changing. Upper-level moisture is already trying to increase. That’s why you see so many contrails today and so many cirrus clouds.
The winds will be on the increase today, too. Those winds will be with us through Saturday and could become very gusty at times. Be mindful of that.
Then, our next storm system comes barreling through on Saturday. This system has the potential to produce strong, damaging thunderstorm winds with any storm that develops. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out but the most likely risk is from damaging straight-line winds. I’ll keep an eye on that.
Heavy rainfall could occur, as well. Thankfully, this system is going to be on the move and not a slow mover. That should minimize any significant flood risk.
Sunday and Monday are looking good, before our next rain-maker arrives Monday night.
Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast
On this day in 1976 Lake-Effect snow squalls dropped 68 inches of snow on Adams, New York! That’s a little over 5.5 feet! Now that’s my kind of snow. ha
Water is quite possibly the weirdest substance on Earth. It stores and releases heat in order to achieve different states. For instance, when ice is trying to form it will release any heat it has stored inside. This is why farmers spray water on their frost-sensitive crops during freezing nights. As the water vapor freezes on the buds, the water releases just enough heat to keep the bud warm and keep it from freezing.
The catch is that this only works with temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. Any colder than that and the heat release won’t be enough to keep the bud protected.
If you have ever wondered if the sun is a big ball of fire you shall wonder no more! My friend Vicky Fox explains it all in this short and very entertaining/educational video skit. I’ll also give you a hint….the sun is not a ball of fire…. I feel like a spoiler…
She also explains the Parker Solar Probe, which I had the honor of seeing launched this past summer!
Wx Hazards Across the Nation
This is a map of all documented tornadoes in the month of January for Middle Tennessee. This is all 62 of them. That’s right, 62. So, tornadoes do occur in January in our neck of the woods.
It’s a bit hard to see, but one of those tornadoes hit in the Dripping Springs community of Cumberland County back in 1928. White county had their only January tornado on that day, too.
Putnam County has had one January tornado that occurred in 1997. It injured six people in the western end of the county.
Fentress, Overton, and Pickett Counties have never recorded a January tornado.
So, while January tornadoes are unusual, they certainly aren’t unheard of, especially west of the Cumberland Plateau.
I snapped these pics this morning. I thought you might enjoy. I always love the sky when a storm system is moving in. The first two pics were taken out of my office window. Not a bad view, right?
I took this one at home before I left for work.
Yesterday evening I got out taking some pics that many of you have already seen on Facebook. I was taking some pics of the nearly-Full Moon when I noticed a plane coming. I scrambled to get the pic! I shared this on weatherTAP’s Facebook and an American Airlines pilot recognized the plane as one of his! He asked me some more questions and he was able to find out that it was actually American Airlines flight 2211 RSW-ORD en route from Fort Myers to Chicago! How cool is that?
You all have a great day!