I wanted to give a quick update before everyone goes to bed.
It’s 8:41 and it’s 60 degrees at my house on January 10. The normal high for today is 44 degrees. Anytime we get this warm in the middle of winter, we have to be concerned.
First of all, we have no stormy weather worries tonight. The only concern we could have tonight is for the winds that will be picking up. A wind advisory goes into effect at midnight and lasts through the day Saturday. The advisory is for winds that could gust to 50 mph.
WeatherTAP’s RadarLab shows the storms are hundreds of miles to our west. There have been numerous severe weather warnings this afternoon and evening and many more will continue into the night for Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana.
Below is that radar, showing storms well to our west. The yellow-outlined counties are under tornado watches for the night.
The storms look pretty mean on satellite too.
Much of Middle TN is in the slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that upgraded to enhanced risk in outlooks issued later tonight and in the morning. It just depends on how unstable we can get tomorrow. I don’t see us getting any sun and that usually limits instability. Fingers crossed!
The biggest concern I have for tomorrow is the screaming winds just a few thousand feet off the surface. Any storm that gets going will have the potential to push those winds to the ground, creating gusts to 70 mph. IF storms can get strong enough to do that.
Just go ahead and prepare for rough weather tomorrow. Charge up the cell phones and make sure you’re ready to lose power. We may lose power from the winds that come long before the storms. Both tonight and tomorrow are going to be very windy!
If we get any severe thunderstorm warnings tomorrow I’d like you to treat them like tornado warnings. The winds that could come down in storms tomorrow could be comparable to what you’d see in a weak tornado. If you get 70 mph winds does it matter if they’re going straight or whirling around? No.
The timing still looks like the afternoon hours. I’d prepare to be home between 11:00 a.m. and 6:00 pm.
Below is the current convective outlook. Notice that the enhanced risk already comes up into southern Middle TN. That could easily expand northward tomorrow.
Again, our tornado threat is low tomorrow but the straight-line winds that some storms produce could be as bad as a weak tornado.
As always, I’ll be watching it all very closely. You all have a good night.
What: A squall line of strong to severe t-storms
When: Saturday afternoon (11:00-6:00)
Main Threat: Very damaging straight-line winds
Other Threats: Strong, gusty winds though tonight and tomorrow that could cause sporadic power outages.