Update on tomorrow’s storms: storm risk is increasing

The updated convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) now has all of Middle TN in the slight risk for severe weather on Saturday. This is an upgrade to the marginal risk that had been in place. That is level 2 out of 5 on the threat levels. Technically, folks in Cumberland and Fentress Counties are not in the slight risk, but I wouldn’t pay attention to that and just be on the watch for severe wx just the same.

risk

The SPC also highlighted Middle TN in the higher risk for damaging straight-line winds. Winds just off the ground, at around 5,000 feet, are going to be absolutely screaming tomorrow. Any storm that can push those winds to the surface will be capable of producing wind gusts of at least 70 mph. If severe t-storm warnings are issued tomorrow I would treat them like a tornado warnings. Straight-line winds can be just as dangerous as weak tornadoes. In fact, with as much wind energy as there will be tomorrow, brief tornado spin-ups can occur so fast that warning’s may not go in time for them.

I’ll keep an eye on all of this. Right now, the severe weather is ramping up out in Oklahoma and Texas. A lot of folks are in for a very rough and dangerous night across Arkansas and Louisiana. Let’s hope and pray all stay safe.

Winds will be picking up across the plateau overnight and through the day tomorrow. Expect sporadic power outages across the plateau, as some of these non-thunderstorm winds could gust to 50 mph.

Make sure cell phones are charged up and that you’re ready to get weather alerts from sources that do not rely on electricity. A weather radio is always supreme to all other weather alert devices/apps/etc.

This is a very spring-like system and it’s going to produce spring-like storms. Just know what to do if a warning is issued for your area. The timeframe to be concerned looks to be from noon to 6:00. It just depends on how fast that squall line comes across the state. Hopefully, no isolated cells will develop ahead of the line. If any storm should do that, it would likely be very severe.

Winter systems are often packed with wind energy and this one is certainly living up to that. I’ll be watching this thorough the night and updating you, as needed.

Remember, no worries for tonight, except those winds that will be picking up.

Weather Update-DL3_091518_JT-01

 

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