A wild weather pattern

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Weather Headlines

–Heavy rainfall expected this week

–Snow flurries possible Friday morning

–A rain/snow mix is possible Saturday

Main threats

Rain, heavy at times, will fall across the plateau over the next 72 hours. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches look likely across the plateau by Friday morning. Flood prone areas need to be aware that some flooding issues are possible. The NWS is considering the issuance of a flood watch for Wednesday.

A strong storm or two can’t be ruled out tonight and/or tomorrow, but the greatest threat for severe weather will stay well to our west and south.

Summary

Rain. That’s the word of the week. And you know something else?  I bet that ends up being the word of the week for next week, too. Keep that rain gear handy!

That rain will increase in coverage and intensity as we go through the next couple of days. We may get a flood watch issued for tomorrow. The only thing keeping us from major flooding is that the rain will fall over a period of several days. Still, those of you who live in flood prone areas need to pay attention to the forecast.

The rain moves out Friday but not before enough cold air moves in to change the leftover moisture to snow flurries. That’s how it looks right now, anyway. That kind of forecast is always a tricky one and often ends with us getting nothing. Getting the tail end of the moisture to stick around for the cold air is always complicated.

It gets a bit more interesting on Saturday. Temps will be colder, for sure, and a disturbance will be in our vicinity. Right now, models want to bring that disturbance right over the top of us, giving us a good chance of precip. With temps in that marginally cold zone, I added a rain and snow mix. If models take that disturbance north or south of us, the precip will also go north or south of us. That has been the trend thus far this winter, with models showing something interesting on us several days out, only to zap it away later on. So take that Saturday forecast with a grain of salt. It’s simply too far out in time to  know for sure what we’ll get and this active pattern is hard to keep up with, especially that many days out. I’ll keep an eye on it!

If you like this rainy week I have good news! Next week looks rainy too.

Almanac

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Wx Hazards Across the Nation

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Records

The wet snowstorm that I mentioned yesterday continued into this day in 1998. The wet snow accumulated to 18 inches in Jamestown, setting a 24-hour record. Monterey did the same with 12 inches. I had 10 inches here in northern Cumberland County. This storm bested the blizzard of ’93 for much of the plateau, but was FAR more destructive because of the wet and heavy nature of this snowfall.

Twister Tuesday

The reason tornadoes leave one home untouched but a neighbor’s house demolished may be due to the fact that many tornadoes are composed of multiple vortices, rather than a single funnel. These vortices rotate around in a sort of song-and-dance, leaving some things untouched, while demolishing the things they come into contact with. They rise and fall as they rotate about the main circulation.

In the image below, you can see the path of vortices that rotated wildly about the center of circulation. Many of us strongly suspect that more tornadoes are multi vortex than not, while much literature still states that only the strongest tornadoes are multi vortex.

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NASA Knowledge

I finished reading Riding Rockets last night. This is a must have in your space nerd library! I wrote this on Facebook about the book,

“Just finished reading Riding Rockets by Mike Mullane. If you want to know what it was like to be a space shuttle astronaut this is a must read! He spares no details (none!). Plus, he gives good insight into the culture of that time, when few cared about political correctness. Prepare to laugh out loud a few times.

It’s one of the best books I’ve read in some time. You’ll never look at the space shuttle program the same again (for better or worse). Mullane was part of the first group of space shuttle astronauts chosen in 1978. He gives insight into how flawed the space shuttle program was and goes into great detail about the Challenger disaster (You’ll want to take a little break after that chapter).

This book is an absolute must-have in your space nerd library and I give it two solid thumbs up!”

News

I’m still out of work today to recover from this sickness. Thankfully, I’m getting a bit better each day. This winter has been harsh for sickness! I hope to be back at work tomorrow.

You all have a great day!

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