Lunchtime weather update (11:20 a.m.)

I just listened in on a conference call with the NWS Nashville. They continue to mention they are considering a winter weather advisory for parts of the plateau for tonight. The closer to the TN/KY border you live the better your chances of accumulation. Look for a dusting to an inch, with the one-inch amounts being most likely around Livingston to Jamestown to Oneida.

The greater concern emphasized in the discussion was the threat of more flooding next week, with several more inches of rain possible. Please keep this in mind if you’re already having flooding issues. Beyond next week, the wet pattern looks to persist. We are far from being finished with the rain. Please be careful around any area streams.

One other thing I’d like to point out is that models are trending drier with Saturday’s system. That’s good news for those dealing with flooding. That’s bad news for those hoping for snow. Never the less, I still think we have a decent shot at some snow flurries/snow showers Saturday morning. I’ll keep an eye on that, but I wouldn’t expect too much from that system.

To sum up, the greatest threat facing our region over the next few weeks is flooding. Every single piece of guidance is suggesting more rainfall, some of which could be very heavy. For those of you in flood-prone areas, you need to take this seriously.

Below is the precipitation outlook for February 11-15. More above-normal rainfall (too warm for snow).

recent

Below is the precipitation outlook for February 13-19. We are right in the bulls-eye for heavy rainfall (again, too warm for snow).

814prcp.new

Below is the rainfall outlook for February 15-28. Once again, we’re right in the middle of the above-normal rainfall. WK34prcp

Have I made my point? We are far from being over with the rain. If your basements are flooding, etc. just look for that to be a continuing problem through the month.

Also, any time we have outlooks that feature above-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures we have to be leery of severe weather. I’ll be keeping an eye on that too!

I’ll have an update later on this evening about tonight’s snow potential. I think tonight is our best shot at some snow for a while.

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