Tuesday Afternoon Wx Update on Snow Chances (2:50 pm)

We’ll have a cold front slip through later this evening, bringing rain and thunder to our area. Severe weather is not expected from any of the storms.

Pictured below is the current radar at 2:50.


That cold front will leave us with a cold Wednesday. That cold air will settle in even more during the night, just as an area of low pressure is developing in the Gulf.

It seems that every round of guidance since yesterday afternoon has pointed more and more to a light snow event for Thursday from that Gulf low. That low will skirt along the northern Gulf Coast. This scenario always sends moisture our way, but sometimes the moisture is too light to make it to the ground before evaporating (virga).

It looks like moisture will be most abundant across southern TN, generally along areas south of I-40. However, the temps will be colder north of I-40. That may even things out for accumulations, giving all of us a chance for one half to one inch of snow. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see areas just south of Cumberland County pick up a bit more than an inch.

Pictured below is one model’s idea of what kind of snow we’ll see. I think it’s overdoing totals by a bit, but we’ll see. Notice the Carolinas are expecting quite the winter storm from this system as it moves up their coast.


I think the air will be moist enough for snow flakes to make it to the surface. If the track of that low shifts north, we’ll have even more moisture to work with. I’ll keep an eye on that. These Gulf lows have to be watched closely because they have so much access to moisture.

So, snowbirds keep your fingers crossed! The good news is that this looks to be primarily a daytime event. That often means the snow melts better on the roadways and it’s easier to keep them clear (esp the main roads). Plus, with a daytime event you can actually see the snow fall (ha).

I changed up my snow dance, since the more I danced the more it rained. I nearly got us all drowned (sorry about that). We’ll see how these new moves work out. Let it snow! 🙂


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