Snow Update (Wed. 7:00 pm)

WHAT: Light snow

WHEN: Thursday

BEGIN TIME: 6-9:00 a.m.

END TIME: Noon to 3:00 pm

HOW MUCH: South of I-40 = up to one half inch (perhaps isolated 1″)

North of I-40 = None to half an inch

The NWS put together this map and I think they did a good job.

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It still looks like we’re on track for some light snow on Thursday. Will it be enough to get kids out of school? That’s for the powers-that-be to decide (ha).

DISCUSSION

High pressure over the northern plains is sending cold, dry air down our way. Meanwhile, a Gulf low is developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The cold, dry air is coming down from the north, while the warm, moist air is coming up from the south. Where they meet and what time they meet will determine how much snow we get.

It continues to look like we will be on the northern fringes of this system. That means precip will be very light. I think those of you north of I-40 will be lucky to get much of anything. Those of you south of I-40 may get a half an inch (maybe an inch in isolated locations).

The key to all this is actually our drier air that is in place. The dewpoint is currently 21 degrees in Crossville. That is the temperature it would be if the relative humidity were 100% (raining or snowing). Our air temperature will be in the low to mid 30s tonight. As precip begins to fall, the air will moisten up and the dewpoint and air temperature will meet. The air temperature will fall and the dewpoint will rise (that’s just how it works. ha). Will they meet at 32 degrees? Will they meet at 33 degrees? That’s very difficult to determine. Right now, it looks like they’ll meet at 31-32 degrees. That’s just cold enough to stick. This is why areas off the plateau will likely be just warm enough for snow to not stick.

So, it’s a tricky forecast but the details to work out are wondering if we’ll get as much as an inch of snow and how far north will snow fall? So, it’s still not looking like a winter storm.

The earlier the precip moves in the more of it will stick. Right now, I think it will arrive between 6:00-9:00 am. If it arrives after that, temps will be a bit warmer and it will be even harder to get accumulation.

This is an event with light precip and marginal temps for snow.

The main roads in Cumberland County have been pre-treated and this is the kind of snow where pre-treatment should work very well. Just be careful on bridges, overpasses, and back roads. I don’t foresee major travel issues.

The NWS agrees with that. They continue to hesitate to issue a winter weather advisory, the lowest of the wintry weather threat levels. That could still change in the morning, though I’m not sure that would even extend to Fentress County.

Keep doing your snow dance snowbirds! ha

I’ll likely to one more brief update later this evening around 9-10:00 pm.

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