Baldwin’s Wx Blog for Sunday, Feb. 23 (Sunday Story)

A Sunday With Little Sun

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Weather Headlines

Rain moves in tonight and tomorrow

A very nice Tuesday afternoon?

Rain and snow for Wednesday

Snow flurries for MY BIRTHDAY (fingers crossed! ha)

Main threats

Just watch for some ponding of water on roadways with heavier rain showers on Monday. Rainfall totals should stay around an inch, so widespread flooding should not be a problem. Rumbles of thunder are expected but no severe weather.

If cold air moves in soon enough, there may be enough moisture left over on Wednesday for some light snow accumulation. This may lead to some slick roads. I’m watching this closely.

Summary

We’ll see a lot of clouds today. Some of those clouds may drop some sprinkles or even a light shower. The bulk of the rain develops tonight. That sets us up for a wet Monday.

That rain ends as a few showers Tuesday and then the sun may come out! If that happens, we may be looking at highs in the lower 60s for Tuesday afternoon. How nice would that be?

Then, the bottom drops out….

A strong cold front moves through Wednesday morning. Rain develops later Tuesday night and that rain will likely change to snow flakes as temps fall on Wednesday. There may be enough moisture left over for some light snow accumulation of around an inch. Stay tuned.

The rest of the pattern looks cold and a bit unsettled. There may be some more light wintry precip Friday night and Saturday, but it’s far too early to tell what impacts (if any) that might have.

Almanac

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Flood warnings remain for area streams across the Southeast. Flood watches are in effect for southern Missouri for rain coming in tonight. Meanwhile, wind and winter weather advisories cover the western US, ahead of the next storm system. Only the mountains of the Pacific Northwest are expecting significant snowfall, with winter storm warnings in place.

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legend

Records

A very severe blizzard struck parts of Nevada on this day in 1936. At least 750 motorists were stranded at Donner Pass. Seven lost their lives.

Am I the only one who would be totally freaking out if I were stranded at a place called Donner Pass in a blizzard? #DonnerParty

Sunday Story

Winter is over halfway over and that gets some of us to thinking about spring and the storms that come along with that season. 

While long-range outlooks are unreliable, especially as quickly as patterns change this time of year, there are certain things we can look to for guidance in what kind of spring we may have. 

The rainfall we’ve received this winter is a bit concerning. It’s a concern not only for the flooding it causes now, but it’s also a concern for the flooding that may come when spring rains come. With soils so saturated, it won’t be a challenge to see lots of dangerous flooding this spring. 

Another concern with the higher soil moisture is the energy that moisture may provide for severe thunderstorms. Warm, humid air is fuel for those storms. The more fuel that is available for storms, the more powerful they can potentially become. 

Anytime we go into the spring months with high soil moisture, we stand a better chance at severe weather in the spring. As that moisture evaporates in warm spring sunshine, more fuel is added to the air. When a cold front moves into that type of airmass, the potential exists for powerful thunderstorms to develop. 

There are so many factors that must come together for storms. Warm and moist air is just one requirement.  There must also be an atmosphere above that supports the storms. We will likely have the warm and moist air here the surface, we just have to wait and see if the atmosphere above creates a favorable environment, too. 

We live in a part of the country that is quite often a battle ground of air masses in the spring. We just have to be ready for anything. Know your severe weather plan and practice it often.

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