At this hour, we’re seeing lots of rain around the region. Thus far, the storms have been well to our west and well to our southeast. We’re the gap in the middle. We are starting to see some severe t-storm warnings in northeast Arkansas, but those will be no bother to us anytime soon.
This morning’s activity is associated with a warm front lifting north. That front is expected to get to southern Middle TN by this afternoon and evening. Along that front is the greatest risk for tornadoes today. Let’s hope it stays well to our south.
On the north side of the warm front is where the greatest risk for hail and damaging winds would be found. I’ll keep an eye on all of this today. Repeating from this morning’s blog, the greatest threat for severe weather will be from Cookeville to Crossville and points south, or along and south of I-40. We’re all in the threat, but that threat is greatest south of I-40.
I’m working on another lesson about wind shear today. I noticed this satellite imagery this morning and thought it would be a good idea to write up a summary on that. I’m still working on that, but I may have it ready by the 1:00 update today. Notice along the northern Gulf Coast how the low-level clouds are moving north, while the clouds higher up are moving east. That is what we call wind shear. That turning of the winds with height is what we look out for with tornadoes. At this time, that set-up looks to be the most ideal for tornadoes across north Alabama and southern Middle TN. That’s close enough for us to be concerned.
Right now, the greatest threat timeframe for severe storms looks to be from 4:00-9:00 pm. I’ll adjust that timing, as needed. It will be easier to time this once the squall line develops in West TN. If we stay cloudy and cooler, our threat will be lower. If the sun pops out and we heat up (looking unlikely), our threat would be higher.
I’ll continue updates every two hours and as needed.