I just wanted to give a quick update on the storms that we have coming Saturday night. I want to start out by saying that we are not expecting widespread severe weather at this time. However, severe storms that fire over West TN will move eastward and we will have to watch and see how well they maintain their severity as they approach the plateau.
At this time, it looks like storms would arrive between 10:00 pm to 2:00 am. I’ll be able to be more specific with that time tomorrow, as timing could change a couple hours either side of that. I may be in for a sleepless night! (ha)
The Storm Prediction Center currently has our area in the marginal risk for severe weather. This is the lowest of the risk categories but that could be upgraded tomorrow. We are right on the edge of the more serious threats just off to our west.
I’ll be watching it all! With us experiencing record-breaking warmth today and probably tomorrow, we’ll have to watch these storms closely. I’ll have a full blog update in the morning, of course.
Pictured below is the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlook for Saturday. Notice how serious the threat is over northern Illinois. That’s a moderate risk (level 3 out of 5 on the severe weather risk categories)
The image below is the probability for tornadoes. Notice how high that probability is over northern Illinois! That is very high. Notice the 5% dips into West TN and the 2% flirts with our area. That’s not a great chance but it’s not zero.
The map below shows the chance for wind damage. Straight-line winds should be our greatest concern.
Again, I’ll be keeping an eye on it all!
You all have a pleasant evening.