First of all, we have a few very isolated showers across the plateau this afternoon, mainly east of us but a couple are near or in Fentress County. The HRRR model shows this quite well this morning. The HRRR is a short-term model that you’ll see me use a lot now. It does an outstanding job showing storm placement. It’s a short-term model, though, so it only goes a few hours out. Still, it is a very important model during times of severe weather and one that is used by chasers a lot!
Pictured below is a view of the radar, via RadarScope. Activity is moving east.
And pictured below is the HRRR model that ran a few hours ago, showing this time period. Notice it shows a few showers just east of the plateau. Not too bad, right?
The Storm Prediction Center has now upgraded everyone north of I-40 to a slight risk for severe storms for Tuesday evening. This is an upgrade from a marginal risk that they had issued earlier today. While the main threat is damaging, straight-line winds, a weak tornado cannot be ruled out. As I mentioned in yesterday afternoon’s update, models have shown some “spin” to the air tomorrow evening that we’ll have to watch. The main threat timeframe appears to be 3:00-9:00 pm.
We also have a risk for severe storms Wednesday evening. The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center shows that all of our area remains in the slight risk for severe storms.
I’ll keep an eye on tomorrow and Wednesday’s storm potential and I’ll keep you all updated!