Baldwin’s Tuesday Wx Blog for April 7

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Weather Headlines

Strong storms possible today (isolated)

Severe storms possible Wednesday night

Frost possible by the end of the week

Main threats

Though storms will be isolated today, any storm that develops in the afternoon hours could become strong to briefly severe.

A much greater chance for severe storms will come Wednesday night. Large hail and damaging straight-line winds will be the main concerns with those storms, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Keep in mind that straight-line winds can be just as destructive as weak tornadoes.


We’ll see partly to mostly skies today. It will be a very warm day. We have a chance for some showers or storms to develop during the afternoon. Any storm that develops will have the potential to become strong.

Wednesday night is looking like a bumpy ride. I’ll be watching this very closely. Damaging straight-line winds look to be the main threat, but those can be just as bad as a weak tornadoes. Remember, severe t-storm warnings are intended to warn you of damaging winds. They don’t have to be spinning around to blow down trees, etc.

Unfortunately, the storms tomorrow will come in the night. Hopefully, they will be out of here by midnight.

Showers should be out of here by noon Thursday. That may set us up for frost by Friday morning.

More showers and storms are likely this weekend. More on that later.


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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Wx Hazards Across the Nation

In the eastern US, strong to severe storms will move through the Ohio Valley today and into the Virginias. Scattered showers are possible throughout the Southeast. Farther west, another storm system will bring flooding rains to the valleys of southern California, while mountain snow falls in the higher elevations. It remains wintry across the northern plains.


Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature (New!)

High: 92 at Oasis, Florida

Low: 14 at Pikes Peak Summit, Colorado


On the morning of April 7, 2007 the low temperature in Crossville was 20 degrees. This was the first of several mornings when temperatures would dip below freezing. Many of us refer to this historic freeze event as the “super freeze”.

The deadliest tornado outbreak to strike Middle Tennessee since the Super Outbreak of 1974 struck on this day in 2006. In all, nine tornadoes sweep across the Midstate region, killing 10 people. The most notable tornado was deadly F-3 that struck Gallatin. I was in grad school at this time and one of my storm chasing buddies and I headed that way to catch the storm. We just missed it, having been caught in traffic on the interstate that had been stopped because of the storm crossing I-65. All around us, the ground was covered in golfball-sized hail. So close.

The only tornado to occur on the plateau that day touched down just south of Crossville. The F-1 tornado packed winds of around 100 mph on its 9-mile path, damaging and/or destroying several homes. I noticed this notation in the NWS’s notes, “Of note, this tornado was the 5th tornado since 1995 to affect the same two mile wide zone on the south side of Crossville.”

Twister Tuesday

At least 77% of all tornadoes in the U.S. are “weak”, meaning they are at EF-0 or EF-1 intensity. At least 95% of all tornadoes are at or below EF-2 strength. Only 0.1% of all tornadoes ever acquire an EF-5 rating, the most destructive of all tornadoes. Given that the U.S. has, on average, has about 1,000 tornadoes a year, about 20 of those can be expected to be violent.

While the incidence of strong to violent tornadoes is very low, they account for nearly all of the tornado deaths in a given year.

The state of Tennessee has recorded only one F-5 tornado in our state’s history. That tornado occurred in southern Middle TN on April 16, 1998.

Pictured below is the traditional tornado alley.


NASA Knowledge

NASA reminds us that tonight is the best supermoon of the year! The moon will be full at 9:35 CDT and will be at its closest approach to Earth for the whole year. When the moon is at its closest approach to Earth it is said to be at Perigee. When it is farthest away it is called apogee. I used to tell my students to keep the two straight by using the “a” in apogee and make it stand for “away”.

NASA also reminds us to look up at the moon tonight and be excited about the next Moon mission, called Artemis! That is when NASA will land the first woman and the next man on the Moon, hopefully by 2024. They hope to establish sustainable exploration by 2028. What an exciting time that will be! Until we can make those steps, we’ll just have to settle for a supermooon and perigee to put us just a bit more closer (physically) to the goal!


Long-Range Outlook

For April 12-16





Baldwin’s View-of-the-Day

I took this sunrise picture this morning. Isn’t that something!?


You all have a great day!

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