3:30 Storm Update

WHAT:Severe storms, with all modes of severe wx possible

WHEN: 10:00 pm – 2:00 am

The latest HRRR model run shows storms consolidating into a squall line through central Illinois by 6:00 pm. A severe t-storm watch has just been issued for much of Illinois. That line will then move our direction and arrive around midnight. Damaging winds and large hail continue to be our main concerns. The tornado threat is low but damaging straight-line winds should remain our primary concern tonight.

Pictured below is the HRRR short-term model. This model is wonderful for tracking severe storms. Notice the line developing at 6:00 pm across Illinois. That’s the line we will track.

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The Storm Prediction Center’s 3:00 pm update continues to highlight our area in the enhanced risk for severe storms. The only change is that this update increased our tornado risk a bit. We were at the 2% chance and now we’re in the 5% chance. I expect tornado watches to be issued for us later this evening.

There are already some storms developing in southern West TN right now and they have gone severe. They are very warm and unstable out there. The Storm Prediction Center is considering a severe t-storm watch for them anytime now. Those storms will move northeast.

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I forgot to mention in the last blog but the best way to take cover from severe storms is to get on the lowest level of your house, away from windows, with as many walls between you and the outside as possible. Interior bathrooms work very well, especially with plumbing in the walls to help reinforce those walls a bit. If you have a helmet put it on. Protecting the head is key. Use pillows, etc, otherwise.

Let’s hope these storms weaken as they approach our area tonight. We’ve not had much luck with that this spring, so let’s just prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Prepare for power outages. I would be really surprised if there aren’t power outages tonight across the plateau.

I would also get your vehicle under some cover. Some of the hail tonight could be quite large.

I’ll be watching all of this tonight and it’s sure to be a long one. I continue to advise at least one person in your household stay up tonight, even if you have a weather radio. I’ll be here with ya! I’ve got my Pepsi, chocolate chip cookies, some cake, chips, dip, etc. I’m ready to rock and roll these storms! (ha) Also, if this spring doesn’t calm down I’m going to put on about 20 pounds. Oh well, the heavier I am the harder it is to blow me away, right? ha

You all take care. I’ll be watching it all. I’ll update again at around 7:00 pm, or as needed.


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