Friday Night Wx Update

I just wanted to remind you all that we are expecting sub-freezing temperatures tonight for several hours, especially toward morning. If you haven’t already brought in any tender plants or covered them up, you better do so before you go to bed.

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You will also want to check out that moon again tonight. It should be quite impressive. Venus has been putting on a big show in the western sky too. She’s best viewed before that very bright moon rises and drowns out some of her glory. Moonrise is around 10:30.

I also wanted to give you an update on Sunday’s storms. Many of you have asked about timing and that is simply impossible at this point. It looks like rain and storms will be with us all day, with the greatest risk of severe storms being in the afternoon and evening. That’s not to say the warm front won’t cause severe weather in the morning. It’s something I’ll have to monitor throughout the day Saturday for timing updates.

The potential for severe weather is there for us on Sunday, for sure, but a lot of variables are at play. There are several scenarios that play out in the model data and in reviewing the guidance that we have. Many of those scenarios bring severe storms into our area. However, there are scenarios where we just get heavy rainfall and maybe some gusty winds. It’s just too soon to know which scenario will evolve at this point. I’ll keep you all posted, but there’s no sense being too worried about it now. A lot can change by Sunday and hopefully the changes will just bring us rain. Just review your severe weather safety plan. We’ve been through this rodeo several times already so you all should have this down pat (ha).

With all that being said, if you wanted to get some nice Easter pictures with your family, tomorrow would be perfect for that! I would certainly do that tomorrow and not Sunday.

I’m working on a new scale that shows you all how concerned I am about severe storms. This is experimental at this point. An example is shown below about my level of concern for Sunday’s storms. If my concern increases, you see a series of arrows that go to the next threat level (you’ll see what I mean if that ever happens). I just thought this would have been nice the other night when storms were struggling as they reached the plateau. I could have shown you all that the threat was decreasing and put some minds at ease. Again, this is just experimental at this point and I’m still working on it.

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You all stay warm tonight and I’ll keep you all posted on Sunday’s storms, including a complete update in tomorrow morning’s blog!

Funny end-note….I’m working on the blog for tomorrow and find myself tempted to forecast rain mixed with snow Tuesday night. Not sure data will continue to support that before I publish my official forecast in the morning, but I thought you’d get a kick out of that. I love plateau weather in April! Still, rain and 33 degrees in the middle of April. Yikes…..

You all rest well!

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