11:30 am Storm Update

WHAT: Strong to severe thunderstorms

WHEN: 5:00 – 2:00 am

Sorry for being a little late. I wanted to update you on the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center and they were late with that update.

We are now under a wind advisory and flash flood watch until Monday morning at 7:00 a.m. Both of those are now officially in effect.

Since the last update, a tornado watch has been issued for much of Mississippi. That is the closest watch to our area at this time. Significant tornadoes are expected across Mississippi and Alabama today. Some of those may even sneak up into southern Middle and East Tennessee.

We continue to have rain and rumbles of thunder across the plateau. That will continue for at least another couple of hours. The severe threat through early afternoon looks very low.

The 11:30 update from the Storm Prediction Center keeps us in the ENHANCED RISK for severe storms for mainly tonight. They have increases our straight-line wind threat for tonight rather substantially. Widespread damaging winds are likely with this squall line. Let’s be prepared for that. Again, that threat comes later tonight (around midnight).

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I think we’ll be ok until this evening. I had said in our last weather update that I wanted you to be weather-aware after 1:00 pm. I think we can push that up a few hours. Let’s start being weather-aware at 5:00 pm. We probably need to start paying close attention to what’s going on to our west and southwest by then. The greater threat will, unfortunately, likely hold off until after dark.

There are two threats. The first is isolated supercells out ahead of the main line. Those isolated supercells should stay to our south. Those are capable of significant severe weather, so we’ll watch the track of those very closely. Again, the worst of that should stay south of the plateau (you folks in Bledsoe County are at a higher risk for those).

The second threat comes around midnight, with the main squall line. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this line. Thankfully, it will be a quick mover….in here and out of here quickly. If it weren’t for the threat of the supercells out ahead of everything this evening, we’d only have the squall line to worry about. In the end, the squall line should be our only threat, but we just can’t keep our eyes off those supercells tracking so close to our south.

I do have a bit of bad news. My level of concern has increased for tonight, due in great part to our increasing risk for damaging straight-line winds with a squall line. The ingredients are coming together for some rough weather for us. Be prepared for power outages. With saturated soils it won’t take much to blow over trees. I’m charging up all my devices right now and making sure I have plenty of batteries.

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I’ll have another update in about two hours, or as needed. I’m keeping a very close eye on all of this. Any storms that develop will be moving rapidly, at speeds of up to 60 mph.

You all take care and stay tuned!

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