WHAT: Strong to severe thunderstorms
WHEN: 6:00 pm – 2:00 am
MAIN THREAT: Damaging straight-line winds to 70+ mph
Let’s start being weather-aware at 5:00. We need to be monitoring what’s going on to our west at that time.
Expect winds to start picking up from the south at any time. A wind advisory is in effect for winds of 15-20 mph, with gusts to 40 mph. This is just southerly winds, not associated with thunderstorms.
We’re about to see a break in the rain. Enjoy that break because more scattered showers and storms are sure to move in behind it.
A squall line is expected to develop late this evening and push toward our area. Damaging straight-line winds will be the main threat, though isolated tornadoes are also possible.
I should emphasize the risk from widespread, damaging straight-line winds. That risk is very elevated. With saturated and/or wet soils, it won’t take much to take trees down. Prepare for power outages.
I’m keeping on eye on things and will let you know if there’s any new development you need to know about. Otherwise, I’ll plan to update again in no more than two hours from now (around 4:00 pm).
My level of concern has increased a bit and is now in the middle of the high category. I’ve had some ask if I think my concern will increase, and I tell them that there’s a better chance of it increasing than there is of it decreasing, primarily because of the widespread damaging wind threat coming with the squall line. Once that line develops, we’ll track it eastward. I’ll keep you posted.
A tornado watch is about to be issued for northern Alabama and parts of southern Middle Tennessee. That activity should stay south of Cumberland County.
I expect tornado watches to be issued for our area much later this evening.
We remain in the ENHANCED RISK for severe storms. The next outlook comes out at 3:00 from the Storm Prediction Center. I’ll let you know if they change anything for our area. I’ll be watching it all!
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