Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today across Middle Tennessee
An unsettled pattern of alternating sunny and rainy weather for the next week
Frost possible early next week
Today: The latest data increases our chances for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening across the plateau. The window of time for severe weather looks to be from 3:00-9:00 pm. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including a tornado or two.
In addition, winds will be very gusty, even outside of storms. A wind advisory is in effect for wind gusts of up to 40 mph.
This morning, the Storm Prediction Center decided to highlight much of Middle TN and the Cumberland Plateau in the slight risk for severe weather. I’ll update again by noon with the latest info.
Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast
Today: The latest guidance now suggests our severe weather threat is increasing. The latest satellite imagery suggests we may see some breaks in the clouds today, leading us to getting sunshine and an unstable atmosphere. Therefore, strong to severe storms now look rather likely this afternoon and evening. Be weather aware today.
Friday: A nice day! Make plans to get outside.
Saturday: Back to rain! We could even hear some thunder.
Sunday: Rain and clouds should move out by noon. That should leave us with a rather pleasant Sunday afternoon.
Monday: A nice day!
Tuesday – Wednesday: Warm and unsettled, with a chance for showers and storms.
Wx Hazards Across the Nation
The big weather story today will be the severe weather across the Southeast today. All modes of severe weather are possible, including tornadoes. The greatest threat will be near the Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, only light precip is expected.
Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature
High: 103 degrees at Falcon Lake, Texas
Low: -2 degrees at Mount Washington, New Hampshire
Difference of: 105 degrees
A very regional blizzard hit the Laramie, Wyoming area on this day in 1983. The storm dropped 16 inches of snow, including 12 inches in just eight hours! The snow fell during the night. What a nice morning surprise that must have been! (ha)
Q: In which state are you LEAST likely to ever see a tornado?
a. West Virginia b. Alaska c. Hawaii d. Maine
(Answer at end of the blog!)
NASA is using satellite technology to help Africa deal with the worst locust infestation in 70 years. The insects obliterate crops and that threatens a delicate food supply for millions. Using satellite technology and ground observations, NASA is tracking the destructive trail of these locusts, as well as being able to identify breeding grounds. The more that is learned about these destructive pests, the better they can be handled by local governments.
Pictured below is an example of a field during an infestation. Anyone else feeling the need to grab some Raid?
Long Range Outlook
The period April 28 through May 2 favors below normal temps and normal precip.
Sometimes, conditions are favorable for supercells to split and form two different storms. More often than not, one will weaken as it moves away and the other will strengthen. One will have anticyclonic rotation, while the other has cyclonic. This splitting occurs as the storm grows taller into an atmosphere that strongly steers the storm one direction from the surface to a certain height upward, followed by strong upper-level winds that try to steer the storm in another direction.
Tuesday evening, radar captured the splitting of two supercells in northern Texas but both storms remained very severe, producing extremely large hail. It is rare to see both storms become so severe.
A significant severe weather outbreak is expected today across the Deep South….again. This time, the threat once again reaches up toward Middle TN. Still, the greatest threats are to our south, near the Gulf Coast, where strong, long-track tornadoes are even possible.
Answer to Trivia Question
A: (b) The state with the least amount of reported tornadoes is Alaska. They’ve only reported four tornadoes since 1950.
Contrast that with Texas, the state with the most tornadoes (on average), were up to 150 tornadoes are reported every year.
You all have a great day!