There is currently a line of very severe t-storms back over toward Missouri. Those storms are rough, with 75 mph wind gusts and golfball-sized hail. But, I have good news. Those will not directly affect us. They are diving southward. A severe t-storm watch is in effect for the westernmost counties of West TN until 3:00 a.m., as they get clipped by the worst of those storms as they dive into Arkansas.
As a cold front continues to develop and move east, a few storms will fire off along it late into the night. The good news for us is that the best upper-level dynamics that are needed for severe storms, shoots off to the south with those other bad storms. That leaves us with some rain and storms, a few of which could have gusty winds and small hail. The greatest threat for that is between about 9:00 am and noon Wednesday. We are in the MARGINAL RISK for severe weather because of that threat.
My level of concern is unchanged from this morning. This just does not have the ingredients for a widespread severe weather scenario.
Then, the upper-level low kinda parks itself in our neck of the woods. These lows are, well, in the upper levels of the atmosphere and they are very cold at their core. Therefore, we could still hear some rumbles of thunder in the afternoon/evening and some of those could contain small hail, owing to the cold temps in the atmosphere.
Unfortunately, that low hangs around for Thursday like an unwanted in-law who just won’t leave (ha). The result will be a cloudy, cooler day with scattered rain showers.
Friday and Saturday look good!
Pictured below is the current radar, showing very strong storms well to our west and diving southward.
I’ll have a full blog update in the morning! You all have a great night.