WHAT: Strong to severe thunderstorms
WHEN: Between 4:00-9:00 pm (be weather aware)
Radar is clear at this hour but that could change over the coming hours. Currently, the main feature on radar is a line of severe storms making their way toward West TN out of Missouri and Arkansas. This line has prompted the issuance of a severe t-storm watch for much of West TN for this afternoon.
As we go through the rest of the day, we could see a shower or storm pop up at about any time. The only thing holding that back right now is a layer of warm air aloft, called a cap, that is holding things off. Those warm layers are like having a lid on the atmosphere. If that warm layer breaks we get storms, if it holds we get hardly anything. Right now, the cap looks like it will hold until at least 4:00 pm.
This line of strong to severe storms coming from the west will likely break through that cap and may be the only thing we concern ourselves with this afternoon and evening. That line will mainly affect areas north of the interstate near sunset but any of us are at risk. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a watch issued for parts of the plateau later this evening.
We should be alright for much of the afternoon, unless a random storm pops up. Those can always pack a punch. Just keep an eye on the sky for that. I wouldn’t expect anything like that until at least 4:00.
The line of storms coming out of Missouri will likely be the main threat this evening. That won’t arrive until late this evening, probably in the 5:00-7:00 timeframe, and mainly for areas north of I-40, as it looks right now.
My level of concern is unchanged from this morning’s outlook and will remain on the low side for now. If that line of strong to severe storms continues packing a punch as it moves across West Tn this afternoon, I will have to raise my concern. I’ll keep an eye on this line of storms and keep you all updated. The main risk is large hail and damaging straight-line winds.