WHAT: Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds
WHEN TO BE WEATHER AWARE: 5:00-9:00 pm
The NWS Nashville just did a webinar on the storm potential for today and tonight. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) just updated the storm outlook for the country.
The chance for severe storms this evening is increasing with the latest guidance coming in.
The SPC added a slight risk for severe storms to the western 1/3 or so of Middle TN with their 11:00 am update. The NWS Nashville disagrees with this outlook and I do too. All of Middle TN is under a threat for severe weather for this evening and we should have all been added to that slight risk. It’s actually looking like a very similar situation to yesterday’s event, but it may affect folks a bit farther south more than yesterday’s storms did. Still, we ALL need to be weather aware this evening for these storms.
Some of these storms may produce winds of up to 70 mph. The tornado threat is a bit higher today but those would be weak spin-ups. The wind damage would be no different than the straight-line winds that these storms are capable of producing.
Storms are currently organizing over Arkansas and Missouri, just like they were at this time yesterday. These events are called derechos. They are long-track thunderstorm complexes that carry a high risk for damaging winds. They have been known to track for hundreds of miles, like yesterday’s did. Derecho is a Spanish word meaning “straight ahead”, which is how the winds blow with this lines (straight-line winds).
There is an outside chance for a strong shower or storm this afternoon as a warm front lifts north. That’s a small chance but it’s not zero. The main threat with those storms would be hail.
My level of concern for this evening’s storms has increased. I’ll keep you all updated, as usual! If this line continues to strengthen as it moves toward our area, my level of concern will increase.