8:00 Update: Trends are looking better

Looking at the latest radar trends, it appears that the better chance for severe storms will stay south of Cumberland County. The threat is looking more favorable toward southern Middle TN and the Chattanooga area. Those storms are packing a punch but they are diving more southeast.

The heavy rain is coming straight for us. That area of rainfall is just north of the surface warm front, in an area favorable for heavier rainfall.

Due to the latest guidance, as well as the latest radar trends, I’m able to drop my level of concern back down to low. I still can’t rule out a strong storm or two, but I think the severe threat is really starting to drop now. The atmosphere across southern Middle TN is much, much more unstable than ours is and that is pulling the storms in that direction more and more.

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I used the drawing tool on RadarScope to outline my thoughts. I hope my sketch makes sense. Those warnings you see in southern Middle TN are capable of producing golfball-sized hail. I sure hate that for them but I sure am glad it’s staying away from us!

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I’ll keep an eye on things and update you as needed. I’ll definitely do another update before or right at 10:00, after some more guidance has come in. The cold front is kicking up some nasty storms over Oklahoma right now but I think this complex we have now will really do a number on our instability. That should dampen down the storm threat with the cold frontal passage later tonight/early Tuesday. That threat, right now, looks very low and I don’t expect that to change.

I’ll update you all on that within the next couple of hours.

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