In order to get severe weather you need an unstable atmosphere, plenty of fuel (warm, moist air) and something to lift that fuel up into that unstable atmosphere. Today, we’re missing that lifting mechanism. That is what has spared us storms today. If only the upper-level winds were more conducive, or if this front had more of a kick to it, we’d be looking at some intense storms.
The lifting mechanism is on the way but by the time it catches up with everything else it will be over in eastern East TN and North Carolina. That’s why the chance for severe storms is much greater over there.
So, for the rest of the day just look for breezy winds and perhaps a shower or t-storm. With as much cold air aloft as we have, any shower or storm could produce small hail. Rain chances through this evening are set at 30%.
I’ve noticed some storm trying to fire off over in the mountains. There, the topography is such that it acts like a lifting mechanism, allowing the warm, moist air to be thrown upward into an unstable atmosphere. The plateau is often good at doing that too, but not today.
Radar continues to look very quiet and I expect that will stay true the rest of the day. The cold front has passed but it’s only bringing a change in wind direction and a bit drier air. More cool air will arrive tomorrow and an even bigger shot of cold air will spill in here for Friday.
You all have a great afternoon and evening!
As you might expect, my concern has now fallen into the lowest of the categories.
Thanks Mark for the very informative and timely updates. It’s like having my own meteorologist sitting on the couch!
I really appreciate the clear concise information you share.
Thank you for that compliment, Mary! And you’re very welcome!