Baldwin’s Thursday Wx Blog for May 14th

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Weather Headlines

A summer-like pattern begins today

The warmest temps we’ve seen in 7 months are expected over the next few days

Main threats

No significant threats expected over the next seven days.

Baldwin’s Severe Wx Concern

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Daily Forecast

Today: Sunny and very warm. Today will remind you of summer. There is only a very slight chance for an afternoon shower or t-shower. Winds will be breezy.

Friday: Continued warm and sunny. Again, a slight chance for an afternoon shower or t-shower. Most of us will stay dry. Winds will be breezy once again.

Saturday: Perhaps a slightly better chance for an afternoon/evening shower or storm. Many of us will stay dry.

Sunday – Monday: A good chance for showers and t-storms. Continued warm.

Tuesday – Wednesday: Cooler. The tropical system to our east and an active jet stream make the forecast this far out very difficult. We could easily be cooler, with some showers. Stay tuned.

Almanac

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Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 105 at Rio Grande Village, Texas

Low: 9 at Mount Washington, New Hampshire

Difference of: 96 degrees

Today’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Severe weather will be found in a swath from northeastern Oklahoma to northwestern Ohio. These storms are riding around the high pressure centered off the Southeast Coast. Elsewhere, only light precip is expected.

ThursdayThreat

Tomorrow’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Tomorrow, the severe weather from today will have made its way to the Northeast. Meanwhile, a new system will cause renewed severe weather and flooding chances for the southern plains. Our first tropical system of the season organizes in the Florida Straits.

ThursdayThreat2

Tropics

Our system in the Florida Straits has a 40% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance of developing within the next five days. The system is expected to slowly move northeast and should stay offshore. Never the less, the system will bring dangerous rip currents and rough seas to the East Coast in the coming days. The system will be named Arthur, should it develop into a tropical storm.

ThursTropics

Records

The newspapers described the storm as a “severe tornado” that touched down in Florence, Alabama and moved north into Tennessee on this day in 1834. The tornado “swept homes and fences away, doing great damage to plantations” in the Pulaski area of southern Middle Tennessee. There is debate as to whether or not this was an F-5 tornado.

As it stands, the only F-5 to ever be recorded in Tennessee occurred on April 16,1998 in southern Middle Tennessee.

Weather Trivia 

Q: The greatest numbers of cows killed in a single lightning strike was ____ .

a. 22   b. 36     c. 43      d. 68     e. 89

(Answer at the end of the blog!)

NASA News

There’s a new comet in town! This one is named Comet Swan and may be visible to the naked eye in the very early morning hours from now until early June. The best time to look for it is just before sunrise in the northeastern sky.

The bad news is that the early twilight sky will hamper our viewing and may even force us to use binoculars. When the comet was visible over Australia, viewing conditions were superb. Don’t be fooled by images that you’ll see that were taken down there. Our view will look nothing like theirs. That is what you’re seeing in the image below.

EXJ1gZhXkAEMKLj

Still, comets are very unpredictable and this one will be flying near the sun in the coming days. Comet’s are even more unpredictable when they interact with the sun.

The comet was discovered by an instrument on board ESA (the European Space Agency) and NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, or SOHO, satellite. The comet is closest to us right now, but will be closest to the sun on the 27th. I’ll try to remind you all of this again. We may just have to go out and look up!

esa_soho_c_2020_f8_swan_24march_to_9may.2020-05-12_16_24_06

Long Range Outlook 

This period of time is expected to be influenced by a tropical system out in the Atlantic and a very unpredictable jet stream pattern. I would expect changes to this outlook by tomorrow. For now, normal to slightly above normal temps and below normal precip are expected from the 19th to the 23rd. That could easily change to below normal temps and normal precip.

Temperature

ThursdayTemp

Precipitation 

ThursdayRain

7-Day Projected Precip Totals

Guidance continues to show the bulk of the precip riding around this area of high pressure in the Southeast in the coming days.

ThursdayQPF

Baldwin’s View-of-the-Day

Our tropical system south of Florida shows up nicely on satellite this morning!

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Answer to Trivia Question

A: (d) As Jersey cattle gathered underneath a single tree in Dorrigo, New South Wales, Australia a lightning strike sent 68 of them to their death. Another three were paralyzed for several hours but then fully recovered. This occurred on October 31, 2005.

That was a bad Halloween for that Australian dairy farmer!

You all have a great day!

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