Baldwin’s Friday Wx Blog for May 15

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Weather Headlines

A summer-like pattern to continue for a few more days

Pattern turns cooler next week

Watching the tropics for our first storm of the season

Main threats

No widespread hazardous weather is expected over the next 7 days.

Baldwin’s Severe Wx Concern

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Daily Forecast

Today & Tomorrow: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for an afternoon shower or t-shower. Many of us will stay dry.

Sunday – Monday: A better chance for showers and storms. About half of us will see rain, the other half won’t each day.

Tuesday – Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with chances for showers and storms. Had it not been for “Arthur” changing up the pattern a bit, we would be hot and dry next week. This forecast depends on that storm and what he does.

Almanac

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Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 104 at Rio Grande Village, Texas

Low: 19 at Mount Washington, New Hampshire

Difference of: 85 degrees

Today’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Severe storms and heavy rainfall will affect the southern plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley again today. Other areas of severe storms include the Northeast and parts of the central plains. Southern Florida will be affected by a developing tropical system.

FridayThreat

Tomorrow’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Heavy rainfall will once again threaten the Lower Mississippi River Valley. All coastal eyes will be on a developing tropical system off the east coast of Florida.

Fridaythreat2

Tropics

It continues to look like we will have Tropical Storm Arthur by the end of this weekend. That will be the first named storm of the season. Hurricane season officially begins June 1, but in recent years we have seen more and more activity in May.

This system is expected to stay out at sea and away from land, though it will still bring dangerous rip currents and rainfall to parts of Florida.

FridayTropics

Records

The morning low temperature in Clarksville dipped to 30 degrees on this day in 1901. This is the latest freeze for them and the coldest temperature they have ever recorded in May. Clarksville is about 50 miles northwest of Nashville in Middle TN.

Parts of New England were covered in 2-3 feet of snow on this day in 1834, especially around Vermont. It was the worst May snowstorm on record for the northern Atlantic Coast.

On this day in 1968 a tornado touched down just southwest of Anchorage, Alaska. It is one of only three tornadoes confirmed in Alaska since 1950.

Weather Trivia 

Q: What is the minimal temperature that ocean water must be to support a hurricane?

a. 70 degrees    b. 80 degrees    c. 90 degrees

(Answer at the end of the blog!)

NASA News

NASA astronauts Robert Behnken and Douglas Hurley entered quarantine Wednesday, May 13, in preparation for their upcoming flight to the International Space Station on NASA’s SpaceX Demo-2 mission.

The launch is slated for May 27th. This will be the first time astronauts have launched from American soil since the space shuttle program ended in 2011.

I was privileged to see the DEMO-1 uncrewed flight test back in March of 2019. What a thrill that was! Cheers to a successful DEMO-2 crewed flight! I hope I can be there but it’s looking less and less likely. Travel is discouraged because of COVID-19.

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Long Range Outlook 

Normal to slightly above normal temperatures continue to be favored in the extended outlooks, as well as below normal rainfall for our area. We will have some cool days next week, but the overall pattern will favor warmer temps and less rain.

Temperature

FridayTemp

Precipitation 

FridayRain

7-Day Projected Precip Totals

FridayQPF

Baldwin’s View-of-the-Day

This is some video by Storm Chaser Reed Timmer of a large tornado roping out. He shot this last night at about 9:00 pm 10 miles northeast of Strong City, Kansas. 

Answer to Trivia Question

A: (b) The temperature of the ocean water must be at least 80 degrees in order to support a hurricane. At that temperature, there is enough evaporation of water to support the energy needed for a hurricane. The warmer the water, the stronger the hurricane’s potential. Of course, water temp is just one ingredient. You must have favorable atmospheric conditions above too.

You all have a great day!

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