Baldwin’s Cooler Tuesday Wx Blog for May 19.

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Weather Headlines

An unsettled forecast right on into Memorial Day weekend

Main threats

No significant threats expected over this forecast period.

Baldwin’s Severe Wx Concern

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Daily Forecast

Today – Thursday: Cooler. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely, especially in the afternoons.

Friday – Sunday: Warmer, with partly cloudy skies. Scattered, mainly afternoon, showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Continued warm, with more chances for scattered showers and storms.

Almanac

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Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 111 at Rio Grande, Texas

Low: 23 at Estcourt Station, Maine

Difference of: 88 degrees

Today’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Heavy rainfall will threaten portions of the Carolinas, while severe storms threaten parts of Montana. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Arthur has obtained fronts, with makes him post-tropical (though still a bit strong). Notice the mountain snows out west.

TuesdayThreat

Tomorrow’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Some mountain snows linger out west, but severe storms really amp up across the Front Range of the Rockies. Heavy rainfall also continues for parts of the Carolinas, where very serious flooding issues may arise.

TuesdayThreat2

Thursday’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation (New!)

Severe weather moves to the southern plains and heavy rainfall continues to threaten the Carolinas and Virginia. Notice the snow is still falling out west.

TuesdayThreat3

Tropics

Arthur is stronger now, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. However, he is now gaining the presence of fronts, which makes him post-tropical. That just means he’s not a truly tropical system any longer. Once fronts start showing up, tropical characteristics start falling away. Never the less, anyone in this storm’s path will experience very strong winds. It’s similar to straight line winds v/s a tornado….they can both be damaging, no matter what you officially call it.

TuesdayARthur

Records

On this day in 1987 severe weather destroyed 80% of the crops in the vicinity of Lavernia, Texas. Up to 13 inches of rain and golfball sized hail pummeled crops into the ground. High winds toppled numerous trees.

Weather Trivia

Q: How many people die each year from hail in the US?

a. none   b. one    c. three    d. five   e. ten

(Answer at the end of the blog!)

Long Range Outlook 

The trend continues to favor very warm temperatures and above normal rainfall. The days of frost may be over (hopefully!), but the days of rains and storminess are far from over.

Temperature

TuesdayTemp

Precipitation 

TuesdayRain

7-Day Projected Precip Totals

The rain is needed along the northern Gulf Coast but serious flooding may be in store for the Carolinas. The southern and central plains are looking very wet, too, which will not bode well for farmers trying to plant.

TuesdayQPF

NASA News

This graphic was released yesterday, showing the steps to the first manned launch from US soil since the space shuttle program ended. That launch is scheduled for May 27 at 3:32 CST. Florida is beginning to open back up now and that may influence my decision on whether or not to go down for the launch. I plan to make up my mind by Friday.

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Baldwin’s View-of-the-Day

Yesterday was the 40th anniversary of the Mt. St. Helens eruption in Washington State. The eruption was famously visible from satellite, as seen below in that raw footage.

Mount St. Helens spewed 5.4 million tons of ash in the air that scientists later estimated would stack 150 miles high on a football field! That’ll make your jaw drop! (ha)

Weather News

A new weather outlook tailored for farmers will be coming soon! I will be making hay cutting forecasts and giving farmers advice on when to cut and when to wait. This will be coming soon in the form of a recorded forecast, complete with graphics that help explain my thoughts. I’m very grateful for this opportunity to work with the new Tennessee Association of Conservation District Executive Director Matthew McClanahan. As soon as Matthew approached me with this idea, I knew it was a good one. Stay tuned! Even if you don’t work in hay you may enjoy the extended outlook forecasting!

Adjacent Forage and Pasture Fields

Answer to Trivia Question

A: (a) The answer is basically none. Since 2000, only four people have been killed by hail in the US.

Globally, the deadliest hailstorm appears to have occurred in Moradabad, India on April 30, 1888. The hail killed as many as 246 people with hail “the size of oranges”.

You all have a great day!

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