Baldwin’s Sunday Story Wx Blog for Aug 16

Courage doesn’t always roar. Sometimes courage is the quiet voice at the end of the day saying, “I will try again tomorrow”

At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

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Threats

No widespread hazardous weather is expected this week.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

A more stable airmass this week will keep severe storms at bay.

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Daily Forecast

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with just a slim chance for an afternoon shower or storm, as a front moves through.

Monday: Partly cloudy and pleasant (low humidity).

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with just a slim chance for an afternoon shower or storm.

Wednesday – Friday: Partly cloudy, with a chance for afternoon showers or storms. Most of us stay dry each day.

Saturday: A bit better chance for scattered showers and storms. Otherwise, partly cloudy.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

With the latest guidance. the forecast has trended a bit drier for this coming week. With only slim afternoon shower/storm chances, I went ahead and put full bales of hay on each day. The only exception is next Saturday, when a bit better chance for rain comes into play, though most of us will likely still stay dry then, too. At least there are no Xs this week!  FYI, extended outlooks are trending cooler and drier.

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Almanac

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Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 126 at Death Valley, California

Low: 26 at Peter Sinks, Utah

Tropics

The tropics are getting very active and there will be much to watch this week. Thankfully, neither Kyle or Josephine are threats to the US. They are both weakening and moving out to sea….a good combination! Two other threat areas in the southern Atlantic, however, will need to be monitored closely as we go through this week.

SundayTropics

Today’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

No widespread hazardous weather is expected.

SundayThreat

Tomorrow’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

No widespread hazardous weather is expected.

SundayThreat2

Tuesday’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

No widespread hazardous weather is expected.

SundayThreat3

Sunday Story

An updated hurricane outlook predicts that this hurricane season may surpass the record-breaking 2005 season with named storms. If that happens, Greek letters will be needed to name storms because we will run out of alphabet letters. That hasn’t happened since the historic 2005 season.

The peak of hurricane season occurs in the middle of September, with the season ending on November 30th.

A storm is named when maximum sustained winds reach 40 mph. The tropical storm becomes a hurricane when those winds reach 74 mph. A hurricane is labeled a “major hurricane” when winds reach 111 mph.

This updated outlook forecasts a total of 24 named storms for this hurricane season, with 12 of those storms reaching hurricane status. Five of those hurricanes are expected to become major hurricanes. These numbers are double what we would expect in a typical season.

This season has already produced more named storms than has ever been recorded at this point in a season. That means that this season is currently more active than the historic 2005 hurricane season.

This season has already produced two unpleasant surprises. The first was the sudden intensification of Hanna before making landfall in Texas in July. That storm became the first hurricane of this season.

The other surprise was twofold and came from Hurricane Isaias. The storm strengthened more than expected before making landfall in North Carolina earlier this month and then produced a surprising number of tornadoes. Some of those tornadoes were strong. Normally, hurricanes produce weak, short-lived tornadoes.

As with all hurricane seasons, it’s the land-falling storms that inflict the greatest human suffering. If the rest of the storms of this season stay out at sea, we’ll be in much better shape than if even one of these storms comes inland. It only takes one storm.

You all have a great day!

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