Baldwin’s Friday Wx Blog for Aug 21

Science is simply the word we use to describe a method of organizing our curiosity

At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Widespread severe weather is not expected over the next seven days, but any storm that does develop could always become locally severe, with a damaging wind gust. Heavy rainfall and deadly cloudy-to ground lightning are also possible.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

My severe wx concern for today and tomorrow has declined. Just keep in mind that a locally severe storms is always possible.

Next week looks to start off hot and dry, with a more stable atmosphere in place.

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today and Tomorrow: Scattered showers and storms. Some storms could be strong to briefly severe, with a damaging wind gust and heavy rainfall.

Sunday: A chance for showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon/evening.

Monday – Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a slight chance for a mainly afternoon/evening shower or storm. Hot and humid.

Thursday: Scattered showers and storms. I’ll have to watch what happens with the tropics, too, as either one of those systems could bring us rainfall.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

Today and tomorrow are still looking very wet. Sunday’s rain chances drop a bit, before hotter and drier weather moves in for early next week. By Thursday, we’ll be watching the influences of tropical systems moving our way, which could bring widespread rainfall to our area. I’ll keep you posted!

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 122 at Death Valley, California

Low: 32 at Grand Lake, Colorado

Tropics

The tropics are active, to say the least. Before I say antying about the two systems expected to impact the US next week, I do want to mention that we still have another tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa that will be watched very closely.

For now, we have two systems that may impact the US early next week. I’ll have a special blog post this evening on these two systems, and I’ll explain various track and intensity scenarios based on the latest data that comes in today, including whether or not these two systems could combine. I’ve had a few of you ask me about that.

The first system of interest is now expected to make landfall as a weak hurricane along the Texas/Louisiana coastline. That would make landfall late Tuesday night. Please keep in mind that both the track and intensity forecast are of low confidence.

The other system is expected to make landfall as a hurricane along the Florida/Alabama coastline late Tuesday night. Again, both the track and intensity of this forecast are of low confidence. The National Hurricane center just named this storm this morning. It is now Tropical Storm Laura.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Heavy downpours threaten parts of the Southeast today, especially in the mountains.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

All eyes will be turning to the tropics, as we see two tropical systems moving up from the south.

Sunday’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Again, nearly all the attention will be turning toward the tropics.

Records

On this day in 1983 Crossville recorded it’s hottest August temperature on record. The temperature was 99 degrees.

Long Range Outlook 

The influence of tropical systems the end of next week could create warm, humid, and wet conditions for much of the Southeast. These systems will likely continue to influence long range outlooks in the days to come.

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

Smoke from wildfires blocks out the sun across parts of Nevada on Thursday. Photo by @wx_daniela.

NASA Nerdology

NASA’s Terra satellite was able to capture the huge swath of smoke that has been generated by the California wildfires and dispersed by the winds surrounding those fires yesterday. Such technology allows scientist to track these smoke plumes, which can be hazardous to breathe.

You all have a great day!

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