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What will happen in the Gulf next week? That’s a good question!

Let the media hype begin! Two hurricanes in the Gulf at once. What unprecedented chaos will this bring?

There’s talk of the storms combining. There’s talk of the storms spinning about each other (Fujiwara Effect). There’s talk of just about every scenario under the sun on social media and on news outlets.

Hurricanes rarely collide and become one big storm. The spin around each storm’s center keeps that from happening. The Fujiwara Effect is real, that is for sure, but that is much more likely to occur in the Pacific, where storms are much more frequent (though it’s still rare there).

During the Fujiwara Effect, the storms each spin about each other. The circulation around the one storm steers the path of the other and vice versa. It’s rare and highly unlikely in the Gulf or Atlantic. There is also the likely possibility that Laura will arrive after Marco has crossed much of the Gulf, keeping the Fujiwara Effect from being able to happen to any great extent.

The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shifts both tracks to the west. This trend may continue, with the western Gulf being more threatened than the eastern Gulf. The NHC reminds all of us that the track and intensity of both of these storms is highly uncertain.

We’ve had two systems in the Gulf at one time but it is very unusual. Normally, one system drains the energy of the other and that nearly kills off one of the storms. That seems the most likely scenario to me.

The most disturbing thing to me this evening is the model guidance wants to stall the one storm near the Texas coast. Let’s hope that flooding disaster doesn’t evolve! (Remember Harvey?)

As of now, New Orleans is in line for the other storm but that will more than likely change in the coming days. The NHC reminds all of us to just stay tuned to the latest forecast. This is, like so many things in 2020, unusual. Not since 1933 have we had two named storms in the Gulf. We have never had two hurricanes in the Gulf at once.

What better year to break a record, right?

I should mention that Laura has a lot of land to interact with in the coming days. If she steers inland too much, it will be the death of her. This is just another wild card in the mix of an already complicated deck of cards.

There’s also the possibility that the other system (likely to be Marco soon) could become seriously impaired crossing land himself. Yet another wild card.

Keep all the folks along the Gulf Coast close to your hearts. I know many of them are so concerned about these storms. Regardless of what ultimately happens, it certainly looks clearer with each run of model guidance that the US needs to brace for a double tropical threat next week. Let’s just hope that neither storm becomes a major hurricane.

I had doubted we would get any influence from Laura but I now think that will be the only one that influences our weather. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some rain in our neck of the woods by next Thursday from that system.

I’ll keep you all posted with the latest! Just don’t get swept away by hype…..

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