Baldwin’s Soggy Saturday Wx blog for Aug 22

Storms make trees take deeper roots

At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Widespread hazardous weather is not expected over the next seven days. Just keep in mind that any storm this time of year can contain very heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning. If you can hear thunder, you ‘re close enough to be struck.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Any storm could become locally severe, with a damaging wind gust, but widespread severe weather is not expected this weekend.

A hot and humid pattern evolves, with isolated storms. Those storms should stay below severe limits.

By Friday, more instability develops across the region, leading to the chance for a stronger storm or two.

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Showers and storms likely. Heavy rainfall is also possible.

Sunday: Mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms.

Monday – Thursday: Partly cloudy, hot and humid. A chance for an afternoon shower or storm each day, mainly in the afternoons and evenings.

Friday: Scattered showers and storms.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

The hay day forecast continues to look wet for today, but better days are ahead! Next week isn’t looking too bad at all, until we get to the end of the week. There’s a pretty good chance tropical moisture will make its way into our neck of the woods by then, setting the stage for wetter conditions beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 124 at Death Valley, California

Low: 30 at Peter Sinks, Utah

Tropics

The tropics are certainly becoming very active and two land-falling storms appear likely for next week. As I suspected when I posted the update last night, guidance now strongly suggests that the storms should stay far enough apart to prevent any direct interaction with each other (such as the Fujiwarea Effect). Also, we still have an area of concern off the Africa coastline, but I’m less worried about it this morning. I’ll keep an eye on it though.

Tropical Storm Marco will enter the southern Gulf late tonight. We’ll watch him very closely, as he treks through the Gulf on Sunday. The storm is expected to remain a tropical storm, though that could change. In fact, both the track and intensity forecast could change over the weekend, so stay tuned. Currently, landfall is expected late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

Tropical Storm Laura may be the greater concern in the coming days. That storm is expected to make landfall as a hurricane, somewhere along the Louisiana coastline, late Wednesday night. Again, the track and intensity forecast could change, so stay tuned. I think Florida will dodge much of this one.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Unsettled weather stretches across much of the country, but widespread severe weather is not expected. Notice Tropical Storm Marco well to the south.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Marco enters the Gulf and unsettled weather continues across much of the US.

Monday Wx Hazards Across the Nation

All eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico. Notice how far apart the systems are.

Records

Yesterday was the date of the hottest August temperature ever recorded in Crossville during the month of August (99 degrees in 1983). Today is the anniversary of the coldest August temperature ever recorded in Crossville. On the morning of August 22, 1956 the low in Crossville was 42 degrees! Makes ya wonder if some of the colder spots saw frost!

Long Range Outlook 

Long range outlooks for the end of next week and weekend look warm and very wet. Makes one wonder just how much above normal on rainfall can we get? ha

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

A downpour associated with the monsoon season near Cottonwood, Arizona yesterday. Isn’t that just beautiful? All we need is a lightning strike to make it perfect. ha

NASA Nerdology

“NASA Hubble Space Telescope images of comet NEOWISE, taken on Aug. 8, zero in on the visitor’s coma, the gossamer shell of gas and dust that surrounds its nucleus as it is heated by the Sun. This is the first time Hubble has photographed a comet of this brightness at such resolution after this close of a pass by the Sun,” NASA.

The icy core of NEOWISE is only about three miles across, while the trail of vapor and gasses is about 11,000 miles across. The comet won’t return to earth for another 7,000 years, as it travels through space at 144,000 mph.

“The comet photos were taken after NEOWISE skimmed closest to the Sun on July 3, 2020, at a distance of 27 million miles. Other comets often break apart due to thermal and gravitational stresses at such close encounters, but Hubble’s view shows that apparently NEOWISE’s solid nucleus stayed intact.”

You all have a great day!

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