Saturday Evening Tropical Update

The 4:00 update from the National Hurricane Center reflects what models have been suggesting all afternoon. The latest guidance shifts the path of Marco east again and appears to be aiming straight for New Orleans. The storm should be at least a cat 1 hurricane at landfall Monday afternoon.

While that’s rough enough, guidance now strongly suggest that Laura will also make landfall near New Orleans just 48 hours after Marco. The reasoning behind this is that the same steering currents that take Marco into Louisiana will be the same that steer Laura. An interesting scenario, for sure.

One thing that this becoming clearer is the two storms will stay far enough apart to not combine or rotate about each other (Fujiwara Effect).

There continues to be so much uncertainty with both the track and intensity forecast for both Marco and Laura. In fact, uncertainty is especially high with both systems. Hopefully, things will become clearer tomorrow. Hurricane watches are now in effect for the Louisiana and Mississippi Coasts. Tropical storm watches are in effect for the Alabama coastline.

There’s much to watch and I’ll be doing just that! All interests along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor this situation very closely.

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