Baldwin’s Thursday Wx Blog for Aug 27

At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in the slight risk for severe storms for Friday night. This is from the remnants of Hurricane Laura. Gusty winds, heavy downpours, and an isolated tornado are possible.

As a frontal system moves in Saturday, more strong to severe storms are possible. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in the marginal risk for severe storms for Saturday.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

As stated above, the remnants of Laura may bring a chance for some severe storms, some of which may produce a tornado. A frontal boundary Saturday will provide more severe storm chances.

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Partly cloudy, hot and humid. A chance for an afternoon shower or storm.

Friday: Rain and storms increase as we get into the second half of the day, becoming likely by Friday night. Some storms could be severe. Winds will increase, as well, gusting to 35-40 mph by Friday night.

Saturday: More rain and storms. Some storms could be severe.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a slight chance for an afternoon/evening shower or storm.

Monday – Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

Today is looking hot and dry for most of us. There will likely be a stray storm on the plateau this afternoon/evening, but many of us stay dry. The first half of tomorrow looks alright, but rain and storms will be moving in by evening. That rain stays with us through Saturday, before things dry out on Sunday. But, like clockwork, the pattern turns wetter by early next week, with more scattered showers and storms.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 120 at Ocotillo Wells, California

Low: 32 at Choteau, Montana

Tropics

Laura moves up the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, producing damaging winds and flooding rainfall. The storm will then get caught up in strong westerlies that will carry the storm across Kentucky. Notice that the storm redevelops into a tropical storm off the East Coast. What a wild storm.

I still expect 1-2 inches of rain for our region by the time all is said and done. Some of you may get more if you get caught under some tropical downpours multiple times.

The flash flood risk is low but it’s not zero for us. Thankfully, Laura will be moving rather quickly, preventing us from getting days and days of rainfall. That cuts down on the flash flood potential.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Most eyes are on Hurricane Laura, as she tracks up the Lower Mississippi River Valley today. Flooding and strong, damaging winds are likely across a large swath of that area. A rough day, for sure. Meanwhile, an extensive area of severe t-storms (some significant) and heavy rainfall stretches all the way from eastern Wyoming to the beaches of New York and New Jersey. Large hail and isolated tornadoes even threaten New York City today.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Another very active weather day. Severe storms and heavy rainfall threaten large portions of the eastern US, with two areas of focus. One is Tropical Storm Laura, the other a frontal boundary.

Saturday’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Unsettled weather continues in the eastern US, with the emphasis for severe storms and heavy rainfall across the Virginias and Carolinas, as well as coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic.

Records

On this day in 1893 a horrific hurricane struck South Carolina, drowning more than 1000 persons in a tidal surge at Charleston. That hurricane season consisted of three major land-falling hurricanes for the US.

Long Range Outlook 

September looks to greet us with warm and very wet weather for the first week of that month.

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

Laura made landfall at 1:00 am at Cameron, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, making her a powerful, high-end cat 4 hurricane. This is the strongest hurricane to make landfall across western Louisiana. I captured this screenshot on RadarScope at that time.

NASA Nerdology

The International Space Station captured this image of Laura in the Gulf, as she gathered strength.

You all have a great day!

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