Baldwin’s Sunday Story Wx Blog for Sept. 13

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At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Widespread severe weather is not expected, but some of the storms today could contain heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Always watch for that cloud-to-ground lightning, too! The rainfall today could lead to localized flash flooding. NOAA has highlighted our area in the slight risk for flash flooding today.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Scattered showers and storms. Some of the rainfall could be heavy and lead to localized flash flooding.

Monday – Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a chance for a mainly afternoon/evening shower or storm.

Wednesday: A chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially later in the day, as Sally begins to influence our weather.

Thursday: Rain and storms. Sally’s influence arrives.

Friday: Decreasing rain chances. Otherwise, partly cloudy.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and quite nice!

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

A wet day today will be followed by an unsettled weak, thanks to Sally and some fronts coming through. The good news is that Friday is trending drier and that nice weather should stay with us for several days.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 108 at Death Valley, California

Low: 17 at Cameron Pass, Colorado

Tropics

Tropical Storm Sally is strengthening and is expected to make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a hurricane. At this time, Sally is expected to be a 100 mph hurricane at landfall, but there are disturbing indications this morning that Sally could be much stronger than that. Stay tuned. Sally is expected to track north, northeast after landfall and could bring us some rain by Wednesday and Thursday.

First of all, the yellow-shaded X in the western Gulf is not expected to develop into anything. Sally will likely steal much of the energy around the Gulf, limiting any other potential development. Hurricane Paulette will stay out to sea, only threatening Bermuda. Rene remains a depression and is now expected to dissipate at sea. Tropical Depression 20 is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday, as it tracks west, northwestward across the southern Atlantic. It is too early to tell if that system will impact the US, but it bears watching. Yet another system behind that one (the red X close to Africa) is expected to become another named storm. We have only three names left before we have to start using the Greek alphabet.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

All eyes are on a strengthening Sally in the Gulf. Meanwhile, unsettled weather continues in the eastern US, while the wildfire danger remains elevated over parts of southern Oregon and northern California and Nevada.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Sally nears the coast as a strengthening hurricane.

 On This Day

1988 – Hurricane Gilbert smashed into the Cayman Islands, and as it headed for the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, and strengthened into a monster hurricane, packing winds of 175 mph. The barometric pressure at the center of Gilbert reached 26.13 inches (888 mb), an all-time record for any hurricane in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic Ocean. Gilbert covered much of the Gulf of Mexico, producing rain as far away as the Florida Keys.

Sunday Story

While many of us in the eastern US are well above average on rainfall, many folks across the western US are well below normal. While we have been dealing with floods and storms, folks out west have been dealing with drought and wildfires.

With such an active hurricane season on tap, the eastern US will likely see more rainfall from tropical systems. Those storms often bring heavy rainfall, something most folks in this part of the country don’t need.  

Here on the plateau, precipitation is so far above normal that it could stop raining right now and we would still end the year above normal on precipitation! Many of us are nearly two feet above normal on annual precipitation.   

Let’s just hope it doesn’t just dry up, though. A wet summer leads to lush vegetation. If that vegetation dries up during the fall, that can lead to dangerous wildfire conditions. 

One downside to a wet year is that the chance for strong storms increases. The fall is our secondary severe weather season on the plateau, though it’s not as pronounced as the spring severe weather season. Still, wet soils increase humidity in the air and moist air is fuel to a storm. That’s something we need to be mindful of this fall season. 

On a positive note, a wet summer can preclude beautiful fall foliage. Those lush, healthy leaves turn brilliant colors when sunlight decreases during the fall. Cool nights and warm afternoons in the fall create perfect conditions for fall colors to explode across our landscape. 

Extended outlooks show no sign of dry weather for this fall season for our area. Hopefully, that means the danger of drought and wildfires will be low. Let’s just hope the storms of these changing seasons are kind to us in the coming weeks.

You all have a great day!

Be sure to “Follow” the blog and get updates emailed straight to your inbox! Just find that “Follow” button in the lower right corner of  your screen. Thank you!

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